{"id":4557,"date":"2008-09-21T11:32:50","date_gmt":"2008-09-21T18:32:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/?p=4557"},"modified":"2008-09-21T11:32:50","modified_gmt":"2008-09-21T18:32:50","slug":"san-diego-housing-industry-outlook-for-2009","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/4557\/san-diego-housing-industry-outlook-for-2009\/","title":{"rendered":"San Diego Housing Industry Outlook For 2009"},"content":{"rendered":"

I’m going to republish a little forecasting I did, about ten months ago, on Active Rain<\/a>.\u00a0 I’ll offer some comments in italics (discussing 2009) and welcome yours in the comments section:<\/em><\/p>\n

Lenn Harley caught something I said a year ago<\/a> and found it to be prescient (her word); I wish I were wrong.\u00a0\u00a0 The comments in her post suggest that I should talk about the upcoming year; I really don’t want to do that because I don’t have great “visions” for 2008.\u00a0 Some thoughts about the next 12-18 months:<\/p>\n

1- More not less of the foreclosure activity we saw these past 5-6 months will continue through 2008<\/strong>.\u00a0 A combination of ARM resets, tightened loan guidelines, and affordability problems will affect American homeowners in a\u00a0 dramatic way.\u00a0 It’s easy to levy the blame on Greenspan, mortgage originators, Wall Street, or REALTORS but at the end of the day, the “greed” ultimately came from the homeowners.\u00a0 The American homeowner, aided by some opportunistic market participants, got drunk on the drug of materialism, financed by a world wide capital glut.He partied up the profits while the clock struck twelve.\u00a0 The foreclosures and continued short sales will be the hangover from the five year orgy we had in the first part of the decade.<\/p>\n

Well, duh.\u00a0 I didn’t need a looking glass to see that.\u00a0 It now looks like Wall Street was the sugardaddy that financed this party, by borrowing from foreign investors.\u00a0 They’re paying dearly for it today.\u00a0 The good news for 2009 is that those drunken sailors from Wall Street (my apologies to beer-sipping Navy veterans) are getting rounded up and placed in rehab programs<\/a>.\u00a0 We might see some stability after this most recent intervention.
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

2- The housing recession will extend to the American economy.<\/strong> Homeowners drew upon home equity like a a high-roller draws chips at the Venetian hotel in Vegas.\u00a0 Nobody will “stand up” for them with the bookies anymore.\u00a0 The money spigot is shut and won’t be turned on no matter what the Fed does to interest rates.\u00a0 Less money means less disposable spending dollars.\u00a0 While, Virginia, there still is a Santa Claus, he Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I’m going to republish a little forecasting I did, about ten months ago, on Active Rain.\u00a0 I’ll offer some comments in italics (discussing 2009) and welcome yours in the comments section: Lenn Harley caught something I said a year ago and found it to be prescient (her word); I wish I were wrong.\u00a0\u00a0 The comments […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-4557","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"hentry","6":"category-real-estate","8":"no-featured-image"},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":6327,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/6327\/2008-in-dog-years\/","url_meta":{"origin":4557,"position":0},"title":"2008 in Dog Years","author":"Teri Lussier","date":"December 29, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"2008 rocked! Yeah, the economy tanked, but I do believe that crisis means opportunity so I'm not sweating that right now- I'm looking for ways to make the best of this situation. Professionally, this year has been productive. That shouldn't be misunderstood to mean that I'm swimming in transactions, because\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Casual Friday"","block_context":{"text":"Casual Friday","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/casual-friday\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5784,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/5784\/late-sunday-post-2009-starts-today\/","url_meta":{"origin":4557,"position":1},"title":"Late Sunday Post: 2009 Starts Today.","author":"Chris Johnson","date":"November 23, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"I was thinking about what I want to do this year--what I will do, and what I might do.\u00a0 And a few good thoughts occurred to me.\u00a0\u00a0 One:\u00a0 BHB is about excellence and splendor.\u00a0\u00a0 The honor of knowing the people here has been nothing short of inspiring.\u00a0 The folks that\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Flourishing"","block_context":{"text":"Flourishing","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/flourishing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2449,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/2449\/goals-by-brian-tracy\/","url_meta":{"origin":4557,"position":2},"title":"Goals! by Brian Tracy","author":"Brian Brady","date":"January 1, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"The concept of lifetime education is embraced by successful people everywhere. While a college education is an invaluable experience, most of what I've learned about sales, marketing, investing, and business has come from books, tapes, CDs, seminars and Russ-casts. There are a lot of \"success marketers\" out there. Rather than\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "General"","block_context":{"text":"General","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/general\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1810,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/1810\/the-countrywide-federal-bailout-act-of-2008\/","url_meta":{"origin":4557,"position":3},"title":"The Countrywide Federal Bailout Act of 2008","author":"Brian Brady","date":"August 15, 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"Have you ever felt your stomach drop? I received an e-mail, from reader Robert Kerr today, asking if I had seen Merrill Lynch's downgrade of Countrywide Financial. Merrill Lynch believes that Countrywide might face bankruptcy. Make no mistake about it, a collapse of Countrywide Financial will give everybody in the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Real Estate"","block_context":{"text":"Real Estate","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/real-estate\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":9727,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/9727\/twittering-twitts-of-twittledom\/","url_meta":{"origin":4557,"position":4},"title":"Twittering Twitts of Twittledom","author":"Sean Purcell","date":"September 11, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"I have always loved Through the Looking Glass by Lewis Carroll.\u00a0 It is many things, not least of which is a truly amazing exposition on language.\u00a0 I bring this up because I recently read Brian Brady's piece entitled Is Social Media Marketing Worth the Effort and quickly imagined myself on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Casual Friday"","block_context":{"text":"Casual Friday","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/casual-friday\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"tweedledee-tweedledum","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/09\/tweedledee-tweedledum.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":3313,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/3313\/fedspeak-july-1-2008\/","url_meta":{"origin":4557,"position":5},"title":"FedSpeak July 1, 2008","author":"Tom Vanderwell","date":"July 2, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"The following are excerpts of a speech made by David Lockhart, President of the Federal Reserve of Atlanta. 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