{"id":53,"date":"2006-02-20T06:10:00","date_gmt":"2006-02-20T13:10:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/?p=53"},"modified":"2006-02-20T06:10:00","modified_gmt":"2006-02-20T13:10:00","slug":"an-open-letter-to-catherine-reagor-and-glen-creno-of-the-arizona-republic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/53\/an-open-letter-to-catherine-reagor-and-glen-creno-of-the-arizona-republic\/","title":{"rendered":"An open letter to Catherine Reagor and Glen Creno of the Arizona Republic<\/I>"},"content":{"rendered":"

First, Catherine, congratulations on your new column<\/a>. Hard work pays off.<\/p>\n

Second, I would dearly love it if both of you would bring some perspective to your writing. For example, from Catherine’s new column:<\/p>\n

What this year holds is the multibillion-dollar question. A 10 percent drop in home building or sales would cost the Valley’s economy at least $1 billion.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

There are two important caveats missing from this conjecture. First, we are more likely to gain 10% in value this year than to lose it. Las Vegas had a 50% upswing in 2004, very much like our year last year. Their appreciation in 2005? An incredible 19.2%<\/a>, four times their normal appreciation.<\/p>\n

I doubt Phoenix will do this well, especially since the year has started down, with a serious dearth of buyers. But Catherine’s worst-case scenario seems even less likely. But even if we entertain it, what are the consequences?<\/p>\n

If I bought a home for $300,000 in January of 2005 (which I actually did do), and if that home is worth $450,000 in January of 2006, and if the market now suffers a “ten percent drop,” what happens? My home would then be worth $405,000, $105,000 more than I paid for it. I put 5% down, so my cash-on-cash return after<\/i> what Catherine seems to regard as a financial cataclysm would be–how much? Jeepers, it’s only 700%. A ten percent drop in values would not be good, but after the surge we’ve had over the last 18 months, it would hardly be tragic, and most people would still be far head of where they were before this boom began.<\/p>\n

The “would cost the Valley’s economy” argument is also specious except as a bookkeeping analysis. A homeowner’s equity isn’t actually gained or lost until it is liquidated. If values drop by 10% this year and gain 6% a year for the next three years, none of it matters until the homeowner either sells or refinances. A drop in values might matter to builders’ shareholders, and it would matter to homeowners if their notes were to be called by their lenders, but otherwise it’s all academic. Without doubt, Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

First, Catherine, congratulations on your new column. Hard work pays off. Second, I would dearly love it if both of you would bring some perspective to your writing. For example, from Catherine’s new column: What this year holds is the multibillion-dollar question. A 10 percent drop in home building or sales would cost the Valley’s […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-53","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"hentry","6":"category-general","8":"no-featured-image"},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":150,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/150\/the-m-m-m-mole\/","url_meta":{"origin":53,"position":0},"title":"The M-m-m-mole . . .","author":"Greg Swann","date":"July 29, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"Catherine Reagor of the Arizona Republic actually acknowledges that comparing this year to last year may not be an ideally-informative strategy:Although the Valley's housing market is definitely slowing, comparisons to last year's frenzied sales pace and appreciation gains aren't a perfect indicator. During 2005, metro Phoenix home prices soared 50\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Marketing"","block_context":{"text":"Marketing","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/marketing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":280,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/280\/trends-are-changing-daily-is-that-real-estate-news-or-a-weather-report\/","url_meta":{"origin":53,"position":1},"title":"“Trends are changing daily” — is that real estate news or a weather report?","author":"Greg Swann","date":"September 3, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"\"Trends are changing daily,\" says Catherine Reagor in her column in the Arizona Republic. Was I a younger man, I might trouble myself to wonder about a \"trend\" that lasts less than a day. But I am older, by now, and wiser, and sick to death of picking on Catherine\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Marketing"","block_context":{"text":"Marketing","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/marketing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":740,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/740\/is-bloodhoundblog-the-most-wired-in-blog-in-real-estate\/","url_meta":{"origin":53,"position":2},"title":"Is Bloodhoundblog The Most Wired In Blog In Real Estate?","author":"Russell Shaw","date":"December 7, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"I got back to my desk late this evening. I had an Inman News Flash email with a time stamp of 10:21 PM announcing the new features on Zillow. Naturally I thought I would pass it along to the Phoenix resident expert on all things Zillow - Greg Swann. The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Blogging"","block_context":{"text":"Blogging","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/blogging\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"billy the kid","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2006\/12\/billy%20the%20kid.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":563,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/563\/valley-home-values-the-sun-will-come-up-tomorrow\/","url_meta":{"origin":53,"position":3},"title":"Valley home values: The sun will come up tomorrow . . .","author":"Greg Swann","date":"October 22, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"Today marks the release of The Arizona Republic's semi-annual run-down of home prices. I've never liked this treatment because it is based on median prices -- which tells you nothing about particular homes -- and is sorted by zip code -- arbitrary and enormous spaces. Here's the Cliff's Notes. You\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Marketing"","block_context":{"text":"Marketing","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/marketing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":405,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/405\/blogoff-post-28-timid-investor-lost-chance-for-large-rental-home-gain\/","url_meta":{"origin":53,"position":4},"title":"Blogoff Post #28: Timid investor lost chance for large rental home gain . . .","author":"Greg Swann","date":"September 26, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"This is from my Arizona Republic column, a sad story about an investor who let a small fear lead to a huge loss:In July 2004 I was working with a potential investor. She was prosperous and well qualified, and she was buying at a time when a nice rental home\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Investment"","block_context":{"text":"Investment","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/investment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":689,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/689\/real-estate-news-there-may-in-fact-truly-be-a-day-beyond-tomorrow\/","url_meta":{"origin":53,"position":5},"title":"Sunday real estate news: There may, in fact, truly be a day beyond tomorrow . . .","author":"Greg Swann","date":"November 26, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"The Arizona Republic is positively ripe with real estate stories today. First up, the amazingly ugly Chateaux on Central condominium development is being forced into bankruptcy. The homes were to sell for $2- to $4-million for apartments as many as six-stories tall -- not a misprint. Freddy Krueger and Damien\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Marketing"","block_context":{"text":"Marketing","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/marketing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=53"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=53"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=53"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=53"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}