{"id":5778,"date":"2008-11-23T15:43:21","date_gmt":"2008-11-23T22:43:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/?p=5778"},"modified":"2008-11-23T15:43:26","modified_gmt":"2008-11-23T22:43:26","slug":"the-bottom-of-the-phoenix-real-estate-market-may-be-in-sight-but-alas-the-end-is-not-near","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/5778\/the-bottom-of-the-phoenix-real-estate-market-may-be-in-sight-but-alas-the-end-is-not-near\/","title":{"rendered":"The bottom of the Phoenix real estate market may be in sight — but, alas, the end is not near"},"content":{"rendered":"

This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic<\/i> (permanent link<\/a>).<\/p>\n

 
The bottom of the Phoenix real estate market may be in sight — but, alas, the end is not near<\/strong><\/p>\n

When will the Phoenix real estate market finally hit bottom?<\/p>\n

Believe it or not, I can answer that question with a high degree of precision: When the number of homes being added to the available inventory each month is generally lower than the number of homes sold each month.<\/p>\n

But that’s a sleight of hand, isn’t it? I can’t say which month on the calendar will be the market’s nadir, I can only tell you what kind of market activity to watch for.<\/p>\n

So here’s one way of looking at things. A newer suburban tract home in the West Valley is selling for $100 a square foot, on average. Practically speaking, this makes new home building unprofitable. Very few new homes will be built, so that source of new inventory is cut off for now.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, various loan workout programs are depleting the foreclosure pipeline. Where before a house might be offered as a short sale and then as a lender-owned home, now there will be an interregnum for the workout. What had been a gusher of lender-owed homes may slow down to a trickle, at least for the next few years.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the low prices of currently available lender-owned homes are providing incentives for monied investors to come to Phoenix to snap up bargains. The nationwide economic slowdown might put the brakes on our normal in-migration patterns, but if people do move here, they’re going to be soaking up inventory as well.<\/p>\n

So we should see some slowing in newly-listed homes, and we have upticks in demand. Are these enough to stop the general decline in home values in the Phoenix market? Ask me in three months.<\/p>\n

But even if they are, we’re very far from being out of trouble. The loan workouts, particularly, may well keep home prices from plummeting. But because they will stretch out what in most cases will be an unavoidable foreclosure process, they will probably keep home prices low for years Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link).  The bottom of the Phoenix real estate market may be in sight — but, alas, the end is not near When will the Phoenix real estate market finally hit bottom? Believe it or not, I can answer that question with a high […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[8,26,6,5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5778","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-investment","category-lending","category-marketing","category-real-estate","no-featured-image"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":4234,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/4234\/august-was-a-great-month-for-real-estate-sales-but-when-40-of-buyers-are-pushed-off-the-playing-field-home-prices-could-plummet\/","url_meta":{"origin":5778,"position":0},"title":"August was a great month for real estate sales, but when 40% of buyers are pushed off the playing field, home prices could plummet","author":"Greg Swann","date":"September 6, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link). \u00a0August was a great month for real estate sales, but when 40% of buyers are pushed off the playing field, home prices could plummet We won't have reliable numbers for a few days,* but preliminary results leave\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Investment"","block_context":{"text":"Investment","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/investment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2793,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/2793\/your-rental-home-in-phoenix-will-generate-positive-cash-flow-but-will-it-appreciate-significantly-in-the-coming-years\/","url_meta":{"origin":5778,"position":1},"title":"Your rental home in Phoenix will generate positive cash flow — but will it appreciate significantly in the coming years?","author":"Greg Swann","date":"March 18, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link): \u00a0Your rental home in Phoenix will generate positive cash flow -- but will it appreciate significantly in the coming years? It's still a buyer's market out there, but is it an investor's market? The answer to that\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Investment"","block_context":{"text":"Investment","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/investment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3216,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/3216\/has-the-phoenix-real-estate-market-turned-the-corner-its-too-early-to-tell-but-mays-results-suggest-we-may-be-nearing-the-bottom\/","url_meta":{"origin":5778,"position":2},"title":"Has the Phoenix real estate market turned the corner? It’s too early to tell, but May’s results suggest we may be nearing the bottom","author":"Greg Swann","date":"June 7, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link). \u00a0Has the Phoenix real estate market turned the corner? It's too early to tell, but May's results suggest we may be nearing the bottom Are you in the mood for some good real estate news for a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Investment"","block_context":{"text":"Investment","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/investment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":253,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/253\/when-realtors-become-as-stupidly-hyperbolic-as-the-bubbleboys-thats-news\/","url_meta":{"origin":5778,"position":3},"title":"When Realtors become as stupidly hyperbolic as the bubbleboys, that’s news…","author":"Greg Swann","date":"August 26, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"Apparently, about 200 Phoenix-area Realtors got together Thursday night for some group therapy:About 200 agents gathered at the Southeast Valley Association of Realtors in Mesa to hear tips from top achievers on how to sell homes and handle clients in this transitional market.We don't belong to SEVRAR, so we weren't\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Marketing"","block_context":{"text":"Marketing","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/marketing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3200,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/3200\/phoenix-real-estate-market-news-may-rocked\/","url_meta":{"origin":5778,"position":4},"title":"Phoenix real estate market news: May rocked","author":"Greg Swann","date":"June 2, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"I tend not to cover local market news at BloodhoundBlog, but this is big, and I expect it might be replicated across the country. I'll be writing about it tomorrow for Saturday's Republic, but it won't be news-pages news for another ten days or so. Here's the news, in any\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Marketing"","block_context":{"text":"Marketing","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/marketing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":133,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/133\/the-weather-in-phoenix-is-always-perfect\/","url_meta":{"origin":5778,"position":5},"title":"The weather in Phoenix is always perfect . . .","author":"Greg Swann","date":"July 25, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":". . . except when it isn't. We had a terrific storm in North Central Phoenix last night. This house -- listed for sale, alas, but not by us -- lost a very old tree. 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