{"id":579,"date":"2006-10-27T09:18:40","date_gmt":"2006-10-27T16:18:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/?p=579"},"modified":"2006-10-27T09:20:03","modified_gmt":"2006-10-27T16:20:03","slug":"should-you-trust-the-numbers-you-read-dig-deeper","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/579\/should-you-trust-the-numbers-you-read-dig-deeper\/","title":{"rendered":"Should you trust the numbers you read? Dig deeper . . ."},"content":{"rendered":"

The Republic<\/i> is all atwitter today because “Prices of new homes slip by largest amount in nearly 36 years”<\/a>. What’s the real news: Nationwide (a non-existent real estate market), year-over-year median prices for new homes were down 9.7%. Not great, not awful, and not really news at all. We need to know which houses, where, and why to know anything. The news hook — “36 years” — just means that the non-news have been very, very good for more than a generation. Without context there is no knowledge.<\/p>\n

Witness: “County wages up 10.5% in a year”<\/a>. That sounds like good news, although the Republic<\/i> tries to spin it negative. I have never believed the complaints about low wages in the Phoenix-area, and our perpetually low unemployment rate is hard to dismiss. What this actually means in the long run is for you to decide. I would be much more impressed to hear about how Phoenicians are improving their job skills. Human capital is all the capital there is, ultimately, and people who take the trouble to learn something useful make good money.<\/p>\n

Here’s my favorite fake number story of the day: “Light rail subsidies calculated”<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Overall, Metro estimates its total operating, maintenance and administration costs at $28.2 million in the first year and plans to recoup a quarter of that money from fares. That leaves Phoenix, Tempe and Mesa to come up with a little over $21 million among them.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

So that means the subsidy will be $3 from the taxpayers for every $1 paid by the rider, right?<\/p>\n

Wrong.<\/p>\n

What is missing from the calculations? The cost of building the ding-dong trolley system, billions of dollars before we’re done.<\/p>\n

The actual<\/i> subsidy will be at least $13 from the taxpayers for every $1 put in the fare box — and possibly a whole lot more.<\/p>\n

Best “news” of all: You will never ever know how much<\/i> you are paying in subsidies. Whatever number you are told, you will know with an icy certainty that you are being lied to.<\/p>\n

Now a thoughtful person might think to say, “Anything worth doing is worth doing for profit.”<\/p>\n

But the BoosterDogglers and the Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Republic is all atwitter today because “Prices of new homes slip by largest amount in nearly 36 years”. What’s the real news: Nationwide (a non-existent real estate market), year-over-year median prices for new homes were down 9.7%. Not great, not awful, and not really news at all. We need to know which houses, where, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,5],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-579","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"hentry","6":"category-marketing","7":"category-real-estate","9":"no-featured-image"},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":324,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/324\/republic-year-over-year-median-prices-down-in-some-areas\/","url_meta":{"origin":579,"position":0},"title":"Republic: Year-over-year median prices down in some areas . . .","author":"Greg Swann","date":"September 12, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"Here's the Republic's read on yesterday's housing numbers, a much more dire interpretation:Valley home prices dipped again in August, even falling below last year's levels in some areas. It is the first time since the Valley's housing market turned red-hot in late 2004 that the monthly median price of existing\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Marketing"","block_context":{"text":"Marketing","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/marketing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":514,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/514\/overall-september-real-estate-market-results-for-mls-listed-homes-in-the-phoenix-area\/","url_meta":{"origin":579,"position":1},"title":"Overall September real estate market results for MLS listed homes in the Phoenix area","author":"Greg Swann","date":"October 5, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"In the Arizona Regional Multiple Listings Service at large, 5,607 homes sold in September against an inventory of 47,428, an implied absorption rate of 8.46 months. There are 5,932 properties listed as \"Sale Pending.\" The historical numbers make it plain that we did not experience the traditional selling season, but\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Marketing"","block_context":{"text":"Marketing","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/marketing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":175,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/175\/market-basket-of-homes-values-down-183-on-slow-sales\/","url_meta":{"origin":579,"position":2},"title":"Market-Basket of Homes: Values down 1.83% on slow sales","author":"Greg Swann","date":"August 5, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"Market-Basket of Homes: Values down 1.83% on slow sales The July BloodhoundRealty.com Market-Basket of Homes is available. Prices down, sales volumes down, but -- interestingly -- inventory is down. Make of it what you will:This fall in Valley schools, the faces of the teachers may change, but the kids may\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Marketing"","block_context":{"text":"Marketing","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/marketing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":84,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/84\/real-estate-market-healthier-than-reported-news-market-rancid\/","url_meta":{"origin":579,"position":3},"title":"Real estate market healthier than reported; news market rancid","author":"Greg Swann","date":"July 13, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"Thrills, chills, front-page headlines -- everything but the truth. It's a way of life for Dr. Jay Butler of the The Arizona Real Estate Center. Today's Republic trumpets June was cold month for resales:The Valley's resale housing market took a hard fall in June, its worst performance for the month\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Real Estate"","block_context":{"text":"Real Estate","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/real-estate\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7018,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/7018\/obamas-housing-rescue-plan-wont-rescue-housing-but-it-will-delay-the-eventual-recovery-of-the-real-estate-market\/","url_meta":{"origin":579,"position":4},"title":"Obama’s housing rescue plan won’t rescue housing, but it will delay the eventual recovery of the real estate market","author":"Greg Swann","date":"February 21, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link). \u00a0Obama's housing rescue plan won't rescue housing, but it will delay the eventual recovery of the real estate market President Barrack Obama came to Mesa Wednesday to announce his new housing initiative. The location made for good\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Big Mother"","block_context":{"text":"Big Mother","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/big-mother\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":364,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/364\/greater-phoenix-chamber-of-commerce-residential-real-estate-rebounding-commercial-real-estate-strong-population-growth-unabated\/","url_meta":{"origin":579,"position":5},"title":"Greater Phoenix Chamber of Commerce: Residential real estate rebounding, commercial real estate strong, population growth unabated","author":"Greg Swann","date":"September 22, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"Two articles in today's Arizona Republic on the state of the local economy as detailed by the Greater Phoenix Chamber of Commerce, both largely good news. Catherine Reagor continues her slow apprehension of the idea that this year is not last year. And R.L. Brown advises us all to adapt\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Marketing"","block_context":{"text":"Marketing","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/marketing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/579","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=579"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/579\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=579"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=579"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=579"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}