{"id":622,"date":"2006-11-09T06:54:33","date_gmt":"2006-11-09T13:54:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/?p=622"},"modified":"2006-11-09T06:54:37","modified_gmt":"2006-11-09T13:54:37","slug":"phoenix-area-single-family-homes-down-one-percent-from-october-2005","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/622\/phoenix-area-single-family-homes-down-one-percent-from-october-2005\/","title":{"rendered":"Phoenix-area single-family homes down one percent from October 2005?"},"content":{"rendered":"

ASU’s Dr. Jay Butler’s housing numbers for October 2006 have been released<\/a>:<\/p>\n

The Valley’s single-family home-resale market clicked higher in October though sales are well off from last year’s frenzy.<\/p>\n

There were 4,985 sales in October, up slightly from 4,875 the previous month but down nearly 41 percent from October of last year, according to the Arizona Real Estate Center at Arizona State University Polytechnic.<\/p>\n

The median price stayed essentially flat. The new median of $257,000 is marginally higher than $256,900 in September.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Here’s the juicy news, though:<\/p>\n

The new median is a little more than 1 percent lower than in October of last year.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Butler has median values down 3.78% from the peak in Jun 2006<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Almost this sounds like a houseful of bad new stuffed into a baby bootie, but it is actually a nice illustration of the uselessness of Butler’s methods. He strikes a median among all sales, Valleywide. If houses are selling well at the high end of the price spectrum and poorly at the low end, this will tend to make the market as a whole look healthier than it is.<\/p>\n

John L. Wake at Arizona Real Estate Notebook has a better set of median values<\/a>, charting October’s numbers city-by-city.<\/p>\n

We work from a completely different set of numbers in our Market Basket of Homes<\/a>, and I realize the curse of these analyses is that they’re all based on different assumptions. But we’re interested in the houses we actually sell and that the people in the middle of the Bell Curve actually buy. Moreover, by working with a representative subset of that market, we can read every listing, one-by-one, to try to determine what really happened.<\/p>\n

How did those houses do in October? Down 4.07% from September, down 7.97% year-over-year, and down 9.88% from the December 2005 high. This is not the disaster it might be portrayed in the newspaper. After all, two-year appreciation on an average Market Basket home is 38.21%. Three-year appreciation is 63.15%. But this news is in stark contrast to the news reported by Dr. Butler.<\/p>\n

MLS inventories are down, and some people want to argue that this means the market has turned. Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ASU’s Dr. Jay Butler’s housing numbers for October 2006 have been released: The Valley’s single-family home-resale market clicked higher in October though sales are well off from last year’s frenzy. There were 4,985 sales in October, up slightly from 4,875 the previous month but down nearly 41 percent from October of last year, according to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,5],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-622","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"hentry","6":"category-marketing","7":"category-real-estate","9":"no-featured-image"},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":601,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/601\/october-2006-bloodhoundrealtycom-market-basket-of-homes-values-down-407-on-normal-sales\/","url_meta":{"origin":622,"position":0},"title":"October 2006 BloodhoundRealty.com Market Basket of Homes: Values down 4.07% on normal sales . . .","author":"Greg Swann","date":"November 4, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"The Phoenix-area real estate market's three-month experiment with stasis came to an abrupt end in October: Although sales levels were normal, as compared with October 2003, the most-recent October before the real estate boom, both asking and selling prices dropped precipitously among the homes tracked in the October 2006 edition\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Marketing"","block_context":{"text":"Marketing","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/marketing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":324,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/324\/republic-year-over-year-median-prices-down-in-some-areas\/","url_meta":{"origin":622,"position":1},"title":"Republic: Year-over-year median prices down in some areas . . .","author":"Greg Swann","date":"September 12, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"Here's the Republic's read on yesterday's housing numbers, a much more dire interpretation:Valley home prices dipped again in August, even falling below last year's levels in some areas. It is the first time since the Valley's housing market turned red-hot in late 2004 that the monthly median price of existing\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Marketing"","block_context":{"text":"Marketing","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/marketing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1136,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/1136\/were-not-mensa-members-but-real-estate-is-a-dream-job\/","url_meta":{"origin":622,"position":2},"title":"We’re not MENSA members – but real estate is a dream job","author":"Russell Shaw","date":"March 11, 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"The following was on the front page, just under the masthead of Sunday's Arizona Republic: Home Values rise despite slowdown Despite falling prices by year's end, leftover momentum from the Valley's housing boom pushed 2006 values above the previous year's values in almost every city. Median price increases in Maricopa\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Investment"","block_context":{"text":"Investment","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/investment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Not MENSA","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2007\/03\/Not%20MENSA1.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":612,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/612\/overall-october-real-estate-market-results-for-mls-listed-homes-in-the-phoenix-area-average-prices-up-177\/","url_meta":{"origin":622,"position":3},"title":"Overall October real estate market results for MLS listed homes in the Phoenix area — average prices up 1.77%","author":"Greg Swann","date":"November 7, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"In the Arizona Regional Multiple Listings Service at large, 5,590 homes sold in October against an inventory of 47,069, an implied absorption rate of 8.42 months. There are 6,059 properties listed as \"Sale Pending.\" All of these numbers are very close to September's results.Number of Homes Sold (with Days on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Marketing"","block_context":{"text":"Marketing","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/marketing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/15\/rising-rents-keep-sky-from-falling\/","url_meta":{"origin":622,"position":4},"title":"Rising rents keep sky from falling?","author":"Odysseus","date":"November 20, 2005","format":false,"excerpt":"In the midst of the appreciation boom in Phoenix, one of the regular Chicken Little complaints was that investors would cause a glut of rental housing, which would then sit vacant until they sold the homes in desperation. This is the static-market fallacy: This change will cause a problem, after\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "General"","block_context":{"text":"General","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/general\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":59,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/59\/another-news-drought\/","url_meta":{"origin":622,"position":5},"title":"Another news drought?","author":"Odysseus","date":"March 19, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"Catherine Reagor in the Arizona Republic asks, \"Another price dip?\":Valley resales figures for February are due out this week. And early analysis from Arizona State University's Real Estate Center shows the median price might have dipped slightly again. In January the median price of all resales was $257,000. They hit\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "General"","block_context":{"text":"General","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/general\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/622","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=622"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/622\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=622"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=622"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=622"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}