{"id":747,"date":"2006-12-08T06:57:58","date_gmt":"2006-12-08T13:57:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/?p=747"},"modified":"2006-12-08T07:01:38","modified_gmt":"2006-12-08T14:01:38","slug":"price-downturn-less-than-scary","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/747\/price-downturn-less-than-scary\/","title":{"rendered":"Price downturn less than scary"},"content":{"rendered":"

This is me from this morning’s Arizona Republic<\/i><\/a> (permanent link<\/a>). I wrote this on Monday, and since then the end of the month errors in the MLS have been corrected, so the percentages in the fourth paragraph have been revised to reflect the changes.<\/p>\n

Price downturn less than scary<\/b><\/p>\n

Here’s a question that cannot be far from every homeowner’s mind: How low will home prices go?<\/p>\n

Despite all the media hype, values haven’t gone down very much. For the types of homes of greatest interest to West Valley homeowners, our recent appreciation boom continued through December 2005. Since then, values have gone down only marginally.<\/p>\n

What’s the damage so far?<\/p>\n

For newer, three-bedroom homes, we’re down 10.27 percent from the peak. Year over year, prices are down 8.72 percent.<\/p>\n

Here’s the good news: Looking at two-year results on these homes, values are up 29.37 percent. Over three years, prices are up 59 percent.<\/p>\n

(All these figures come from our Market Basket of Homes, which is available online at www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/MarketBasket.php<\/a>.)<\/p>\n

But the burning question is, have we found the bottom of the market?<\/p>\n

That’s a complicated question.<\/p>\n

Doomsayers insist that housing prices will plummet or at least undergo a regression to mean appreciation.<\/p>\n

What this means is that if West Valley homes “should have” appreciated by 6 percent a year, we will have to give back the gains of recent years, either by a quick drop in values or a long stagnation.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, inventories of Market Basket homes are down precipitously from earlier this year. Sales are fairly high, compared with November 2003. Builders are clearing their excess inventory at a rapid clip. With a decent spring selling season, we could be through the worst of this downturn.<\/p>\n

However, inventories are still very high. So, if you try to sell now, you will be in fierce competition with other sellers.<\/p>\n

It’s probably wise to resist the urge to tap that equity in your home. Interest rates are very low, so you might refinance to get a better loan, to eliminate a second mortgage or to reduce higher-interest debt.<\/p>\n

It remains to be seen if we’re out of the woods. But, so far, the Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This is me from this morning’s Arizona Republic (permanent link). I wrote this on Monday, and since then the end of the month errors in the MLS have been corrected, so the percentages in the fourth paragraph have been revised to reflect the changes. Price downturn less than scary Here’s a question that cannot be […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,5],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-747","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"hentry","6":"category-marketing","7":"category-real-estate","9":"no-featured-image"},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":5993,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/5993\/can-we-stop-falling-house-values-an-op-ed-piece-by-the-nahb\/","url_meta":{"origin":747,"position":0},"title":"Can We Stop Falling House Values? An Op Ed piece by the NAHB","author":"Tom Vanderwell","date":"December 9, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"This is excerpts from an op ed piece written by Steve Hodgkins.\u00a0\u00a0 I\u2019ll throw some comments in to explain\/clarify what he\u2019s saying and why I don\u2019t agree with a large portion of it. The decline in single-family home values is the predominate reason for the current economic collapse\u2026\u2026 Tom here\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Lending"","block_context":{"text":"Lending","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/lending\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2793,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/2793\/your-rental-home-in-phoenix-will-generate-positive-cash-flow-but-will-it-appreciate-significantly-in-the-coming-years\/","url_meta":{"origin":747,"position":1},"title":"Your rental home in Phoenix will generate positive cash flow — but will it appreciate significantly in the coming years?","author":"Greg Swann","date":"March 18, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link): \u00a0Your rental home in Phoenix will generate positive cash flow -- but will it appreciate significantly in the coming years? It's still a buyer's market out there, but is it an investor's market? The answer to that\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Investment"","block_context":{"text":"Investment","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/investment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":24,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/24\/when-did-reporters-become-the-gullible-stenographers-of-frauds\/","url_meta":{"origin":747,"position":2},"title":"When did reporters become the gullible stenographers of frauds?","author":"Odysseus","date":"December 10, 2005","format":false,"excerpt":"Holy smokes!The Phoenix region has landed on a list of \"extremely\" overvalued housing marketsBut, but but! Of course there's a \"but\":but it's unlikely that the situation will lead to meaningful drops in home prices, several local housing analysts said.Whew! That was a close one! Well, not really. The cited text\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "General"","block_context":{"text":"General","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/general\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":55,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/55\/one-year-of-experience-eleven-times\/","url_meta":{"origin":747,"position":3},"title":"One year of experience eleven times…?","author":"Odysseus","date":"February 25, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"Our most favorite real estate oracle, Catherine Reagor of the Arizona Republic weighs in with some observations that may actually be as undefended as they are unthought out. In fairness to Ms. Reagor, I'll quote her text as I explore it:Bad news for the many homeowners trying to sell: It's\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "General"","block_context":{"text":"General","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/general\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1655,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/1655\/not-all-neighborhoods-feeling-a-downturn\/","url_meta":{"origin":747,"position":4},"title":"Not all neighborhoods feeling a downturn","author":"Greg Swann","date":"July 14, 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"This is me in yesterday's Arizona Republic (permanent link): \u00a0Not all neighborhoods feeling a downturn There are neighborhoods in the Phoenix area where the housing downturn is barely discernible. How can that be? News reports are full of doom and gloom stories. Defaults, foreclosures and interest rates are up, with\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Marketing"","block_context":{"text":"Marketing","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/marketing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14552,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/14552\/brett-arends-from-the-wall-street-journal-on-zillows-morning-gloom-report-all-this-bearish-news-makes-me-bullish\/","url_meta":{"origin":747,"position":5},"title":"Brett Arends from the Wall Street Journal on Zillow’s morning gloom report: “All this bearish news makes me bullish.”","author":"Greg Swann","date":"May 9, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Our friends at Zillow.com have figured out the secret to getting news coverage: Bad news:Home values in the United States fell faster in the first quarter of 2011 than they have in any quarter since 2008, when the housing market experienced its worst performance, according to Zillow's first quarter Real\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Group Therapy"","block_context":{"text":"Group Therapy","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/group-therapy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/747","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=747"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/747\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=747"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=747"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=747"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}