{"id":853,"date":"2007-01-04T15:39:24","date_gmt":"2007-01-04T22:39:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/?p=853"},"modified":"2007-01-05T08:52:38","modified_gmt":"2007-01-05T15:52:38","slug":"twisted-minds-was-businessweek-bamboozled-by-bubble-blogstress","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/853\/twisted-minds-was-businessweek-bamboozled-by-bubble-blogstress\/","title":{"rendered":"Twisted minds: Was BusinessWeek bamboozled by bubble-blogstress?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Was a big-time Sixth Avenue media giant flim-flammed by a Gilbert, AZ, housewife, nom de guerre<\/i> “Twist,” who has set herself up as an authority on the residential real estate market and its feverishly-sought collapse? From BusinessWeek Online’s Hot Property<\/a>:<\/p>\n

In Phoenix, the numbers seem to go kerflooey every December. In December 2005, the number of houses that were withdrawn from the market plummeted to just 87, from 3,673 the previous month and 5,882 the month after. (Twist defines withdrawals to include listings that are expired, withdrawn, pending, or temporarily off the market.) In December of ’04 in Phoenix, withdrawals declined so much that they supposedly went negative–specifically, a negative 1,234. Of course, there is no such thing as a “negative withdrawal,” so this has to be some kind of bookkeeping fudge.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

As it turns out, the only thing wrong with this is everything.<\/p>\n

I have no idea why we’re talking about November and December of 2005 and January of 2006, but these are the actual numbers for Expired, Cancelled, Sale Pending and Temporarily Off Market listings from those months, as taken this afternoon from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listings Service, the MLS system for the Phoenix area:<\/p>\n

November 2005<\/b>
\nExpired: 1021
\nCancelled: 2444
\nPending: 1
\nTemporarily Off Market: 1
\nTotal 3467<\/b><\/p>\n

December 2005<\/b>
\nExpired: 2134
\nCancelled: 2218
\nPending: 2
\nTemporarily Off Market: 1
\nTotal 4355<\/b><\/p>\n

January 2006<\/b>
\nExpired: 1568
\nCancelled: 2582
\nPending: 3
\nTemporarily Off Market: 6
\nTotal 4159<\/p>\n

<\/b>November 2004<\/b> (amended to orignal post for completeness)
\nExpired: 640
\nCancelled: 1200
\nPending: 0
\nTemporarily Off Market: 0
\nTotal 1840<\/b><\/p>\n

December 2004<\/b>
\nExpired: 1062
\nCancelled: 1001
\nPending: 0
\nTemporarily Off Market: 2
\nTotal 2065<\/b><\/p>\n

January 2005<\/b>
\nExpired: 605
\nCancelled: 1363
\nPending: 1
\nTemporarily Off Market: 3
\nTotal 1972<\/b><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Why are so few homes listed as Sale Pending or Temporarily Off Market? Because the status of those listings has changed in the intervening months, most of them to Sold.<\/p>\n

I have no idea what “Twist” was failing to measure, but a Realtor would only be concerned with Expired and Cancelled listings, recognizing that the other two categories are nebulous and subject to change.<\/p>\n

And, obviously: Bubble bloggers are notoriously reckless with numbers. They have an agenda, so they tend to throw out any data that do not fit their preconceptions. I have no idea if that’s what has happened here, but I can’t see Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Was a big-time Sixth Avenue media giant flim-flammed by a Gilbert, AZ, housewife, nom de guerre “Twist,” who has set herself up as an authority on the residential real estate market and its feverishly-sought collapse? From BusinessWeek Online’s Hot Property: In Phoenix, the numbers seem to go kerflooey every December. In December 2005, the number […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,6,5],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-853","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"hentry","6":"category-blogging","7":"category-marketing","8":"category-real-estate","10":"no-featured-image"},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":868,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/868\/was-businessweek-bamboozled-twist-doesnt-know-what-she-doesnt-know\/","url_meta":{"origin":853,"position":0},"title":"Was BusinessWeek bamboozled? “Twist” doesn’t know what she doesn’t know . . .","author":"Greg Swann","date":"January 8, 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"This is a copy of email I just sent to Peter Coy of BusinessWeek with respect to false claims made last week about deception in the Arizona Regional Multiple Listings Service. Cliff's Notes: False alarm resulting from \"crackpot claims, the end product of a fervid imagination and a Rube Goldberg\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Blogging"","block_context":{"text":"Blogging","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/blogging\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":235,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/235\/were-number-seven\/","url_meta":{"origin":853,"position":1},"title":"We’re number seven?","author":"Greg Swann","date":"August 23, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"Maybe not. BusinessWeek has the Phoenix\/Mesa metropolitan area as the seventh healthiest real estate market in the country -- but since their analysis is based on year-over-year appreciation, that news is not nearly a momentous as it portends to be. Using our own numbers, yearover-year through July we're up 0.57%\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Marketing"","block_context":{"text":"Marketing","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/marketing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":772,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/772\/almost-famous-businessweek-on-excessive-buyers-agents-commissions\/","url_meta":{"origin":853,"position":2},"title":"Almost famous: BusinessWeek on excessive buyer’s agent’s commissions . . .","author":"Greg Swann","date":"December 15, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"Eagle-eyed Kevin Boer of Three Oceans Real Estate was the first to catch it: BusinessWeek.com quoted me in an article on \"supersized commissions\":There's nothing wrong with incentives, even sizable ones, if they're disclosed and buyers fully understand what's motivating the agents who are showing them around. But in many states\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Blogging"","block_context":{"text":"Blogging","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/blogging\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1960,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/1960\/approving-a-loan-the-careless-way\/","url_meta":{"origin":853,"position":3},"title":"Approving A Loan The Careless Way","author":"Russell Shaw","date":"September 22, 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"Just ran across this in letters to the editor section of the Aug 13 issue of BusinessWeek. Wanted to pass it along. ___ Approving A Loan The Careless Way \"Why Fannie and Freddie are fidgety\" (News & Insights, July 30) talks about \"low-documentation loans.\" It would be interesting to know\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Real Estate"","block_context":{"text":"Real Estate","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/real-estate\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"businessweek logo","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2007\/09\/businessweek%20logo.gif?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":722,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/722\/real-estate-links-and-how-to-enact-a-hollywood-western\/","url_meta":{"origin":853,"position":4},"title":"Real estate links and how to enact a Hollywood Western . . .","author":"Greg Swann","date":"November 30, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"Teresa Boardman guest blogs at The Real Estate Tomato with some excellent advice on honing our technology skills. Free The Drones has more on the Google Sandbox. Bonnie Erickson at Real Estate Snippets is raising a stink about smelly houses. This may be the perfect answer to the question, \"Why\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Blogging"","block_context":{"text":"Blogging","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/blogging\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1698,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/1698\/what-should-you-do-when-the-real-estate-news-turns-out-not-to-be-as-bad-as-you-had-feared\/","url_meta":{"origin":853,"position":5},"title":"What should you do when the real estate news turns out not to be as bad as you had feared?","author":"Greg Swann","date":"July 25, 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"A. Smile in good grace:Today, in its Existing Home Sales report for June 2007, the National Association of REALTORS noted that mortgage rates are lower by 0.02% than in June 2006. I guess I knew that, but wasn't paying attention to it.\u00a0 I had wrongly assumed rates were higher because\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Lending"","block_context":{"text":"Lending","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/lending\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/853","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=853"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/853\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=853"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=853"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=853"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}