{"id":9918,"date":"2009-10-01T13:42:00","date_gmt":"2009-10-01T20:42:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/?p=9918"},"modified":"2009-10-01T13:42:00","modified_gmt":"2009-10-01T20:42:00","slug":"the-jobs-report-whats-it-going-to-mean-for-mortgage-rates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/9918\/the-jobs-report-whats-it-going-to-mean-for-mortgage-rates\/","title":{"rendered":"The Jobs Report &ndash; what&rsquo;s it going to mean for mortgage rates?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Okay, it\u2019s hard to believe but tomorrow morning is the first Friday of the month again.&#160;&#160;&#160; Where has the year gone?&#160;&#160; In some ways it has flown by and in other ways it seems like it\u2019s been about two or three years.&#160;&#160; Know what I mean?<\/p>\n<p>Any way, tomorrow morning is the jobs report that shows the statistics for the month of September.&#160;&#160; I\u2019ve had a lot of people asking me what I think it\u2019s going to show and what I think it\u2019s going to do to mortgage rates.&#160;&#160;&#160; I\u2019m going to lay out what I think are the four most likely outcomes and their potential impact on mortgage rates.&#160; At the end of the piece, I\u2019ll put my \u201cprojections\u201d on which one is most likely to occur.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The Jobs Report Comes In Better Than Expected \u2013 <\/strong>Remember, it\u2019s not so much the actual number as it is the difference between market expectations and the actual numbers.&#160;&#160; But, if the jobs report comes in better than expected, here\u2019s what I expect will happen:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>People will feel better than they did about the prospects for a recovery in the economy. <\/li>\n<li>People and institutional investors will move money (lots of it \u2013 how much depends on how much better) from the bond market and cash and put it into the stock market. <\/li>\n<li>The stock market will have a very nice upward swing. <\/li>\n<li>The bond market and mortgage backed securities will suffer from the movement of money. <\/li>\n<li>Mortgage Rates will go up. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>The Jobs Report Comes in about as expected \u2013 <\/strong>status quo, mediocre, we just sort of limp along.&#160;&#160; If that\u2019s the case, I expect we\u2019d see a \u201cnon-reaction\u201d in the markets.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The Jobs Report Comes in Worse Than Expected \u2013 <\/strong>a little bit worse, but not a huge amount worse.&#160;&#160; If that\u2019s what happens, here\u2019s what I expect:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>People will feel worse about the prospects for recovery in the economy and we\u2019re <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/9918\/the-jobs-report-whats-it-going-to-mean-for-mortgage-rates\/#more-9918\" class=\"more-link\">Read more<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Okay, it\u2019s hard to believe but tomorrow morning is the first Friday of the month again.&#160;&#160;&#160; Where has the year gone?&#160;&#160; In some ways it has flown by and in other ways it seems like it\u2019s been about two or three years.&#160;&#160; Know what I mean? Any way, tomorrow morning is the jobs report that [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[29,26],"tags":[178,394],"class_list":{"0":"post-9918","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"hentry","6":"category-group-therapy","7":"category-lending","8":"tag-mortgage-rates","9":"tag-the-jobs-report","11":"no-featured-image"},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":9628,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/9628\/the-jobs-report-what-does-it-mean-for-mortgage-rates\/","url_meta":{"origin":9918,"position":0},"title":"The Jobs Report &#8211; What does it mean for mortgage rates?","author":"Tom Vanderwell","date":"September 3, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"Given all of the discussion here lately about using video, I thought I'd post something a bit more \"ordinary\" than Mr. Potato Head but hopefully useful as well.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 The video below is some of my thoughts on what the jobs report that comes out tomorrow might mean for the mortgage\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Group Therapy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Group Therapy","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/group-therapy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":9639,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/9639\/jobs-report-did-i-call-it-wrong\/","url_meta":{"origin":9918,"position":1},"title":"Jobs Report &#8211; did I call it wrong?","author":"Tom Vanderwell","date":"September 4, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"Okay, so far this morning, the market has reacted in a very volatile but not significantly changed manner to the jobs report.\u00a0\u00a0 Essentially the jobs report came in pretty much where the market expected.\u00a0\u00a0 So, did I call it wrong by recommending a shorter term lock and a long term\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Dirty Laundry&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Dirty Laundry","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/dirty-laundry\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5465,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/5465\/why-i-think-the-jobs-report-wont-be-helpful-for-mortgage-rates\/","url_meta":{"origin":9918,"position":2},"title":"Why I think the Jobs report won&#8217;t be helpful for mortgage rates&#8230;.","author":"Tom Vanderwell","date":"November 7, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"Okay, let's face the fact that the jobs reports and the reports from Ford and General Motors that came out today were ugly.\u00a0\u00a0 Not just ugly, downright nasty. In normal economic times, that sort of bad economic news would send people fleeing stocks and going into the bond market.\u00a0\u00a0 That\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Lending&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Lending","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/lending\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4219,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/4219\/mortgage-market-week-in-review-jobs\/","url_meta":{"origin":9918,"position":3},"title":"Mortgage Market Week in Review &#8211; Jobs&#8230;.","author":"Tom Vanderwell","date":"September 5, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"Well, it\u2019s Friday again, everyone is back in school, my 18 year old is off to college (only 35 minutes away but still) and the mortgage world keeps moving on.\u00a0\u00a0 So what\u2019s this week look like?\u00a0\u00a0 Well, frankly there were a couple of other things going on, but the main\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Lending&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Lending","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/lending\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4792,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/4792\/mortgage-market-week-in-review-11\/","url_meta":{"origin":9918,"position":4},"title":"Mortgage Market Week in Review","author":"Tom Vanderwell","date":"October 3, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"Well, here we are on Friday again. Are you getting motion sickness from all of the news and rumors that are flying back and forth? Wow has it been another week to forget, hasn\u2019t it? Here are the topics we\u2019re going to talk about today: The Bailout\/Rescue Plan, some very\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Group Therapy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Group Therapy","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/group-therapy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5071,"url":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/5071\/mortgage-market-week-in-review-12\/","url_meta":{"origin":9918,"position":5},"title":"Mortgage Market Week in Review","author":"Tom Vanderwell","date":"October 17, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"Well, here we are and it\u2019s time for another Mortgage Market Week in Review.\u00a0\u00a0 This week, we\u2019re going to talk about consumer spending, consumer confidence, the new normal, where\u2019s the bottom?\u00a0and why interest rates have had a 1 percent up and half percent down swing since last week Wednesday. Consumer\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Real Estate&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Real Estate","link":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/category\/real-estate\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9918","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9918"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9918\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9918"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9918"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bloodhoundrealty.com\/BloodhoundBlog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9918"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}