Thereโ€™s always something to howl about.

The extinction of the pterosaur – If your goal is long-term profitability, skimming the surface can kill you.

From the San Diego Union Tribune, dateline August 16, 2007:

Paleontologists studying pterosaurs had theorized that some the extinct flying reptiles fed by skimming along the water with their mouths open. However, a new analysis by British scientists indicates pterosaurs were too large and would have created too much drag to feed in this way.

And this is precisely why I see the traditional real estate agent not only surviving but thriving. Many predict the demise of the likes of me. They predict a future where I have been stripped of my MLS, at least in the proprietary sense, and where I have been stripped of my paycheck, rendering me crippled and ineffective chum.

Good, successful traditional agents find their sustenance in a much deeper ocean, while this point seems to be lost on the new fisherman, the alternative for-fee, for-less business models, and even the fish.

360-Marlow wrote last week about how Lennox Scott of John L. Scott Realty, speaking at the recent Inman Connect conference, “seemed unable to articulate why a commissioned sales person may be preferable to one paid on salary”. Well, let me give it a shot.

  • The salaried employee is not required to front their own money (in my case, thousands of dollars per month per assignment) on the promise (not to be confused with “guarantee”) of some future paycheck.
  • The salaried employee does not run the risk that, having worked on their employer’s behalf for months (and months and months), their employer will “change their mind”.
  • The salaried employee does not bear the burden of their employer’s overhead.
  • If the salaried employee’s employer is unsuccessful in selling their product to the end user, the salaried employee will still be paid for their time expended.
  • The salaried employee wakes up each morning knowing they have a job, a job secured by a single interview, where their commission-based counterpart must attend job interviews on a daily basis. (Job interviews take time and money; let’s, just for fun, call them “non-billable hours”).
  • The salaried employee is assured lunch breaks and days off. The salaried employee clocks out at the end of the shift.
  • The salaried employee’s job description does not change each day requiring his ongoing personal investment in acquiring new and better skills to simply keep his job.

The fish may see it differently, but make no mistake. The business of real estate representation is extraordinarily time and money intensive and is becoming increasingly more complex. Not every “job well done” results in a pay day; conversely many of the agent’s more challenging assignments conclude with a net loss. If you want me to accept risk, there has to be at least the potential for reward. If you want me to work on salary, then you assume the risk, and you have effectively relieved me of much of my accountability, which one would argue is not in your favor.

Which brings me back to the pterosaurs. They set out to skim, and their proposition was to bring the fish to the surface by suggesting that deeper waters were such a scary place to swim. Depending on the tide, it may be good feeding, yet when the currents change, easy meals may be scarce. This business can be a drag. In the long run, I think we will see more pterosaurs, those offering less for less, coming to the conclusion under the weight of huge venture capital investments in a high risk proposition they are just too heavy to survive.