Want to buy some predictions for $4,000.00. Actually, $3,995 to be exact. And the predictions are too. The ones I’ve examined are also unfounded, stupid and won’t be true. But as you can see here, you get two copies for your 4k. Then for only $500 more per copy you can get up to ten (10) additional copies. That’s really reasonable. It makes your average cost per copy a low low $749.58 (10 X 500 + 3995 = 8995). Who can’t afford that?
Of course the data is pretty much useless but that won’t stop it from being spewed all across the planet.
Most print and electronic media are just determined to endlessly establish that they have no real knowledge of anything they are writing or talking about – they just print and rebroadcast “news releases” that are really little more than poorly disguised PR to sell some book or seminar.
Here is a sample forecast for Phoenix:
In September 2007, in spite of all the problems in our real estate market listed above, Moody’s predicts the Phoenix real estate market will bottom out in 2Q/2008 and react like a “V” with a quick increase of 7.7% in the first year because 1.) we have so many people moving into Arizona and 2.) Phoenix leads the nation in job growth. Other areas of the country are not as fortunate as we and they will see a protracted “U” shaped real estate market recovery because those areas have a net outflow of residents and lots of job losses.
Good news. Prices will be actually going up next year. Isn’t that great? I’m excited. Now I can tell all my customers to just wait until the 3rd quarter and sell then. Yea!!
This is the same Moody’s who was giving the sub-prime backed crap paper the equivalent of a “triple A” rating. Oh yea, that Moody’s. It is astounding that no economist (read that as NONE) predicted the run up in prices until after the run up was occurring. Then they could chat about it at great length. This would be sort of like the weatherman waiting until it was raining to say it looked like it was going to rain. I know, I know they do that all the time. But these are all smart people, really – they’ve been to college.
Lane Bailey says:
Have you looked at the NAR individual market reports for 2007, looking forward? I get the release yesterday, and the report looks like it was written a year ago… talking about oil at $70/barrel… but has data from as late as July of this year. And there is a reason that I have a hard time believing their numbers?
December 14, 2007 — 7:09 am
Frank says:
Three months ago Moody reported that the Phoenix area housing prices will drop 18% in the next year or two. In the same report several other markets will decline more than 20%. Now, they think it will increase 7.7%, hmmm. I can understand the 7% increase, but where did the 0.7% come from.
December 14, 2007 — 9:59 am
Thomas Johnson says:
All these prognosticators are smart, very smart. They even have MBA’s! (Masters at Bagging Amateurs)
Thank you, now where is my Billion Dollar bonus?
December 14, 2007 — 10:05 am
Steve Nicks says:
With inventory levels as high as they are, one of two things need to happen. 1) Inventory needs to drop by almost 50% in the next 6 months. I don’t see that happening. Or 2) in spite of supply/demand economics, prices will begin to increase even though supply is far above the current levels of demand. I’m no economist, but I just don’t see that happening either. So I wonder what their basis is for making such a claim.
December 14, 2007 — 10:10 am
Keith says:
You are so on target about Moody’s. These idiots contributed to the sub-prime disaster and they are giving their opinions about values? They think they are qualified??
Here is a newsflash: Nobody really knows what is going to happen on anything. There are too many factors as play in our society right now for us to be positive of anything. And Moody’s has alot of gall putting out a forecast on anything. They are contributing to further deterioration in the housing market by putting out these idiotic forecasts.
December 15, 2007 — 5:43 pm