Here is a good example of why short-term real estate numbers are so useless.
In Arizona, the foreclosure rate leapt nearly 27 percent in August compared to July.
Wow! Twenty-seven percent! That’s huge… right? Wrong.
Foreclosures in August were down nearly 12 percent from the same month last year[.]
Last August, there were almost no foreclosures. We were in the midst of an unprecedented housing boom.
So what does “leapt nearly 27 percent” mean? It means about as much as a four-year-old leaping 27 percent higher than a three-year-old. Tell the Chicken Little Brigade to stand down — and belay that call to the Olympic Committee…
Technorati Tags: arizona, arizona real estate, phoenix, phoenix real estate, real estate, real estate marketing
Jonathan Dalton says:
Perspective doesn’t make for newspaper sales, as I told a friend of mine who works for the Republic. Emotion, preferably strife bordering on hysteria, sells much, much better.
The search for perspective led me to start tracking the absorption rates for different cities in the Valley on my blog. Simply quoting the number of homes for sale seemed pointless without some sense of what the number meant in the greater scheme of things.
Another friend of mine who works at the Republic (nearly dated myself and said R&G) offered my stats and info to the Republic’s real estate writers but they weren’t as interested in stories not involving flying cell phones.
I am shocked! Shocked, I say!
September 15, 2006 — 1:04 pm
Michael Daly says:
Interesting that we are zeroing in on this forclosure exploitation drama being played out by interlopers like RealtyTrac. Check out http://truenorthrealty.blogspot.com/2006/09/ill-put-my-money-on-john-kanas.html md.
September 18, 2006 — 8:24 am
LAMoneyGuy says:
Actually, that doesn’t make sense. If there were virtually no foreclosures last year, how can we be down 12% from then?
The national numbers are more telling. Up 24% from July and up 53% from 8/05. So, Arizona in August 2005 appears to have been some sort of anomoly.
September 18, 2006 — 12:47 pm
Greg Swann says:
> If there were virtually no foreclosures last year, how can we be down 12% from then?
Almost nothing * 0.88 is still something. Just not much.
September 18, 2006 — 3:33 pm