There’s always something to howl about.

Category: Real Estate (page 138 of 266)

The Odysseus Medal competition — Voting for the People’s Choice Award is open

Sorry to be late. I’ve worked with dozens of Macs, mine and other people’s, since 1985, and Iridium is the first one I’ve ever had fail to start up. I cleaned my desk today — idle hands — and fired up 96 Tears, a ten-year-old G3, for the first time in months, the second time in more than two years. No problem. Cameron had a IIci running on his desk for more than twelve years.

Anyway, there are 20 entries on the short list this week, out of a long list of 113 posts. News, yes, but some truly thoughtful think pieces, too.

Vote for the People’s Choice Award here. You can use the voting interface to see each nominated post, so comparison is easy.

Ahem: Please don’t spam all your friends to come and vote for you. First, what we’re interested in is what is popular among people who would have been voting anyway. And second, I’ll eliminate you for cheating. Don’t say you weren’t warned.

Voting runs through to 12 Noon MST Wednesday this week. I’ll announce the winners of this week’s awards soon thereafter.

Here is this week’s short-list of Odysseus Medal nominees:

< ?PHP $AltEntries = array ( "Brendan King -- Change Your State of Mind Change Your State of Mind”,
“Dan Green — Another Rate Cut
With Another Rate Cut, The Federal Reserve May Be The Proverbial \”Fool In The Shower\”“,
“Dan Green — Database Marketing In The Business Of Personal Relationships, Database Marketing Is More Effective Than SEO Marketing“,
“Dustin Luther — dothomes DotHomes Launches US Home Search Tool“,
“Geno Petro — A Mastermind of Hucksters A Mastermind of Hucksters“,
“Jeff Brown — Getting Off the Ground Principles of Flight and Real Estate — Getting Off the Ground“,
“Jillayne Schlicke — Walk Away If You Walk Away, I’ll Walk Away“,
“Jim Duncan — I hear rumors all the time I hear rumors all the time“,
“Joel Burslem — dothomes International Real Estate Search Site Makes a Move into US“,
“Joel Burslem — The New MicroHoo Real Estate The New MicroHoo Real Estate“,
“Kevin Boer — dothomes Do We Really Need Yet Another Real Estate Search Site?“,
“Kris Berg — Going Green Going Green – finally!“,
“Kris Berg — Joe and Marge Joe and Marge“,
“Marc Grayson — Are Read more

Back among the living…

I’m even caught up on my email, if only because I was dealing with mission-critical stuff in Squirrel Mail, a Eunuchs server-side mail client written in 1474. Motto: It’s Pre-Colombian!

Now: 327 unread posts in my feed-reader.

The Odysseus Medal will issue forth with dispatch, honest.

How much to repair the Mac: $0.

Priceless…

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Fair assessment of risk or Redlining?

Last week on my blog I noted what would happen if my local real estate market were to become a “declining market.”

This week brings a perspective from the Washington Post and the Consumerist that “declining markets” equate “redlining.”

Redlining:

Redlining refers to the illegal practice of refusing to make residential loans or imposing more onerous terms on any loans made because of the predominant race, national origin, etc., of the residents of the neighborhood in which the property is located.  Redlining violates both the FH Act and the ECOA.

Does the determination that a particular neighborhood or area has declining values really equate racial redlining, or are the lenders using good judgement (something they seemed to have been lacking over the past few years)?

Race is a tricky and always delicate topic, but I just don’t see the parallel between declining values and race.

One of the folks at FortiusOne sent me a link to this map showing the counties listed by Countrywide as declining.

Declining-Markets-From-Geocommons

No joy in Bloodville…

The power supply on my Mac has bee acting flaky for weeks. Last night it finally died the true death, so I have to take it to the Apple Store to get it swapped out.

So there are three special prizes in my CrackerJack box:

  • No Mac
  • Windows instead
  • A delay in the judging of The Odysseus Medal competition

I’m guessing that enough people will be in the thrall of the Super Bowl that I won’t be missed. (For my own part, I think football could only be improved if the games were played in national forests. With Redfin agents as the referees.)

In any case, like the Phoenix herself, I’ll be back to normal shortly.

 
Amending this: Monday afternoon, he sobbed. I’ll do the Odysseus Medal tomorrow night, using Noon today as the cut-off for this week’s nominees. My apologies. In the mean time, it’s like I’m in Vegas — limited connectivity — but without the views or the liquour.

Understanding the Laffer Curve — Reality & Myth — What’s Next?

Being just slightly to the right of Attila the Hun, taxes are of great import to me. I believe in principles long established. One of them is small government works better for its citizens than large government. Lower taxes are better than higher taxes as long as the bills are being paid, our military is strong enough to deter aggressors, and basic constitutional government functions are adequately funded.

One of the breakthrough economic theories to be proven in the red hot fire of real life application has been the Laffer Curve. Arthur Laffer’s theory was adopted as fundamental to economic recovery by Ronald Reagan during his 1980 presidential campaign.

I’ll let the video below speak for itself, but will allow myself a few pithy observations.

The first time the Laffer Curve Theory was applied tax revenues skyrocketed. The U.S. Treasury’s own records show revenues generated from the early 1980’s tax cuts went up an aggregate 95%. The period measured was the time Reagan took office until he left office — just short of double in eight years. I expect this will be shown in Parts II and III when they’re released.

Actually, the first time the theory was applied was before anyone, including Laffer himself had even thought of the Laffer Curve. It was John Kennedy who cut the top marginal rate from (I’m not making this up.) about 90.5% (!) down to a paltry 70%. The reason Kennedy used was that it would spur the economy, and increase the actual tax dollars collected. Go figure. History shows he was dead on right. That top rate remained until Reagan cut it to 28% over two decades later.

Opinion — If we ever get income taxes, capital gains taxes, and corporate taxes where they belong, and combine them with cuts (elimination?) in the fat of government spending — we’ll see an economic surge that will make the Reagan boom look like a blip on the screen. But alas, I daydream. Cockroaches as a species will die before pork barrel spending does.

Opinion — Together with the significant liquidity increases in both the U.S. and European Read more

A new way to howl: Announcing “The Long List of Odysseus Medal Nominees” — the weblog

Apart from the normal crush of business, I’ve been hammering away for the past few weeks on a huge project — which I’ll be announcing shortly. In the mean time, I’ve wanted to make a further elaboration on the Long List lister I made a few weeks ago. That tool will echo The Long List of Odysseus Medal Nominees as they come in, but I wanted something that could be subscribed to by feed reader, as well.

It occurred to me to push the data out as a feed on my own, but instead I decided to build a link blog. I did that tonight. You can see it by clicking here.

This is a pure link blog — no commentary and no comments. I’m just drawing attention to the 75-100 posts that are making The Long List every week. You can see what’s new by visiting the weblog, but the ideal way to use this tool is simply to subscribe to the feed.

The Long List is updated several times a day, so you’ll always be abreast of the very best writing in the RE.net.

The other end of the pipeline commands your attention, as well: If you see something you think is truly great, and if it’s not already on The Long List — nominate it.

Here’s a trick, if you’re interested. Go to this nomination form, then drag it into your browser’s tool bar or save it in your bookmarks. The when you see a post you like, open the form in a new tab, so you can swap back and forth to paste in the title and URL.

On my end, the nomination process is by now almost completely automated. I moderate for porn and spam, of course, but I can normally update both the The Long List list box and The Long List of Odysseus Medal Nominees weblog with one click.

One of the things that I like best about this new weblog is that, from today going forward, The Long List will endure, instead of evaporating every Monday.

Anyway, the new weblog is open for business. Visit the blog, subscribe to the feed Read more

M-soft bids for Yahoo! What does it mean for search?

According to Yahoo News linked here Microsoft has tendered an unsolicited bid for Yahoo that would make it (in theory) a realistic competitor to Google in the search engine world. They are not even in the same league at the moment.

I had posted a couple of weeks ago about Yahoo laying off hundreds and the power of focus. Seems that Bill G. thinks he can bring some focus to them…it will be interesting to see. What will be even more interesting to see is (IF this bid is accepted and I would think it would since it is a large percentage over current stock values…) how they attempt to take on big G.

I will be posting some more in depth thought on how this MAY impact search marketing and search engine optimization efforts in the real estate space as the story develops. I think they will have a difficult time in getting their search results more relevant than Google’s are right now.

There could be some interesting implications to many REALTORS who currently derive much exposure from the search engines.

Stay tuned.

If you’ve finally found your dream home — don’t dawdle

This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link):

 
If you’ve finally found your dream home — don’t dawdle

Here’s a paradox for the ages: It’s been a strong buyers market for more than two years — and yet buyers still can’t afford to be lax about the houses they love.

How’s that? In our recent seller’s market, sellers were completely indifferent to home-buyers — as a matter of studied strategy. “We might consider your offer,” they seemed to say, “but not today. We’re letting the offers pile up until Monday or Tuesday, then we’ll take a look at them all at the same time.”

Why can’t buyers in this market approach sellers with the same bland indifference?

They can — provided they’re willing to buy just any home.

In a seller’s market, qualified buyers are essentially a fungible quantity. Each one is simply a pile of money in the seller’s eyes — some larger, some smaller, some sooner, some later. Allowing for risks and opportunities, one is as good as another.

Not so for buyers. Houses are inherently non-fungible — each one is unique in location, appearance, construction, condition, amenities and lifestyle factors. Even with so many homes for sale right now, it can be a challenge for buyers to find even one house they are completely committed to buying.

My take: If you want to get the best possible deal, pick three homes, not one, and pit the sellers against each other.

But buyers don’t do this. Instead, they look at dozens of sub-standard offerings, and then focus all of their attention on the one house they can find that is priced right, repaired and staged right, marketed right.

And guess what? Of all the houses these buyers will have seen, this is the one for which there is competition. The factors that appeal to them also appeal to the other folks out there looking for homes right now. The dirty or neglected or over-priced houses attract no offers, where the few that are truly market-ready can draw multiple contracts within a few days of being listed.

The lesson to take away: If you really love Read more

Who benefits from occupational licensing laws? The licensees, to be sure — to the detriment of the consumer

Via Coyote Blog and Radley Balko, the Philadelphia Inquirer brings us a nice illustration of why occupational licensing laws really exist: Not to protect the consumer, but to protect the licensees from free-market competition:

Mary Jo Pletz was really, really good at eBay. But now the former stay-at-home mother and gonzo Internet retailer fears a maximum $10 million fine for selling 10,000 toys, antiques, videos, sports memorabilia, books, tools and infant clothes on eBay without an auctioneer’s license.

An official from the Department of State knocked on Pletz’s white-brick ranch here north of Allentown in late December 2006 and said her Internet business, D&J Virtual Consignment, was being investigated for violating state laws.

“I was dumbfounded,” said Pletz, who led the dark-suited investigator to a side patio area, where he grilled her. “I told him I would just shut down,” she said.

Mary Jo’s violation? Auctioneering without a license. Sound familiar? It should. It parallels the dumb stunt the Sate of Arizona tried to pull on Zillow.com, which was accused of doing real estate appraisals without a license.

But there are consumers who need protecting, right? Oh, you bet:

D&J Virtual Consignment had 11,000 feedback comments on eBay and 14 were negative, Pletz said, giving her a 99.9 percent satisfaction rating.

Ebay is not just perfect Capitalism, it is Capitalism Perfected — everything that has always been implicit in free-market commercial transactions made utterly transparent by means of database management. If you are looking for the complete and irrefutable refutation of Das Kapital, you’ll find it not on but in the form of Ebay.com.

So where’s the beef?

Amoros, the state spokeswoman, said investigations were a “complaint-driven” process but those complaints are confidential.

Uh huh.

It is only possible to for you to defend occupational licensing laws by ignoring the palpable harm they do to actual consumers — higher prices for lower quality goods and services. But even then, don’t get downwind of yourself. This stuff stinks.

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Big News: Ignore all that fine print, tear through all that red tape — Redfin.com supports Safari at last!

Oh, wait, that’s not the big news from Redfin.com. In fact, I reported the really big news last night:

Redfin will either make money or it won’t, and, in the long run, if it endures into a long run, it will become more like traditional real estate even as traditional real estate becomes more like Redfin.

So here’s what’s changed, as of 12:01 am EST: Redfin agents are going to squire buyers around for free four times as much as they have in the past. No news on who’s buying lunch.

Online real estate broker Redfin Corporation today rolled out a 75-day trial of a new home-tours policy that allows visitors to its site to arrange four Redfin-hosted home tours without paying any money up-front or making any commitment to Redfin. The first two tours would be free, and the third and fourth tours would cost $250 at closing, with any subsequent tours costing $250 in advance.

Sounds complicated, doesn’t it? My experience is that home-buyers are not the most assiduous readers of fine print.

There’s more:

The new tours last two hours, and require the buyer to provide a mortgage pre-approval letter documenting her ability to buy the homes she is scheduled to visit. Redfin deducts the $250 charges for the third and fourth tours from the commission refund, which has averaged roughly $10,000 at closing. Customers who do not complete a purchase with Redfin do not pay for their third and fourth tours. Previously, Redfin only provided one free three-hour home tour, charging $250 in advance for each additional tour.

I’m thinking there can be too much red tape even for the INTx gnomes who find Redfin appealing. What is clear is that pay-as-you-go has a less-than-ideal gnome appeal.

I can do four houses an hour with normal buyers. I normally do 12 houses in three hours, then make the buyers stop. After 12 houses, their eyes glaze over. If we limited ourselves to two hours, that would be eight houses. Four two-hour tours would be 32 houses. This is nothing at all like the original Redfin game plan — shoving the expense of showing homes onto Read more

A Mastermind of Hucksters

High Body Count

1+1=3…A Mastermind Alliance. I first learned of this concept over 20 years ago during one of many telemarketing seminars I attended as a tenderfoot insurance salesman. I can’t recall which one exactly, but I’m certain the motivational speaker cashed my post-dated check—a sign up now and pay later gimmick included in the 2 week Increased Performance Guarantee.  My office buddy and Mastermind phoning partner Sam, however, bounced his post-dated check and eventually got sent to a collection agency before escaping  the business for good without ever making a nickle, or for that matter, an appointment as an insurance man.

This was all back in a time when I truly wanted to believe that ‘No‘ meant ‘K.N.O.W; the ‘Client’ (person on a list) really needed to know more to make the ultimate buying decision; and a shoeshine and a handshake?….well shucks, “I just want to earn your business, Mr Fencestraddler.”  Somehow, even though I tried to fancy myself a believer, all the sales talk never sounded quite right coming out of my own mouth.  And even though I had long since left the business at the time, I publicly applauded the Do Not Call legislation of 2003 and all the crappy jobs and unrealized frustration it eliminated from people’s lives.

My Sales Manager, a guy named Charlie who initially recruited me into the business, called me in for a chat one morning after three months on the job. He had a picture window above his cherry wood credenza that overlooked a dense forest preserve behind the office. His three remaining walls were plastered with ceremonial photographs, sales award plaques, and framed certificates, all about him. He had an electric shoe buffer next to his cherry wood desk and a full length mirror behind his door with a sign above that read: Would You Hire This Person?

A few months earlier he convinced me to give the insurance business a try.  He and one of his trainees sold me a rinky dink burial policy one snowy night–a ritual in itself that lasted three solid hours and culminated with my signature and a check for the first month’s premium just as Letterman was coming on the tube and my dinner withered to ash in the oven. My ‘belief in the product,’  he said, was ‘the Read more

Obeo, Baby, where have you been all my life? Why should buyers stop at virtually moving in their furniture when they can virtually redecorate — inside and outside — as well?

We are too much misled, surely. Too much miscounseled, misdirected, misinformed. Too many of the people we turn to for advice on selling homes don’t actually sell homes themselves — never have — and, in consequence, too often, they are too much mistaken.

Consider that 2006 was to have been the Year of the Real Estate Video — except it wasn’t. Nor was 2007. And nor, neither, will be 2008. Video is useful for telling stories and for communicating personality. In expert hands it can be an incomparable tool for conveying arcane or abstract ideas. As a real estate marketing tool, it is at best a role-player — and most often — owing to crappy production values and even crappier pre-planning — it serves more as a detriment than a benefit to the marketing of a home.

Good photography, by contrast, is the real estate marketing tool of the millennium. Houses sit still, and what buyers want, more than anything, are scads of detail-rich images that also sit still — so they can examine, repeatedly, every last one of those details.

We will sometimes do video in a role-playing way for our listings, but the second most popular feature on our web sites, after the photographs, is the interactive floorplan. Buyers love to see exactly how their furniture is going to fit into the home — and the more they commit their minds to the home, the more committed they are to buying it. The scientific name for this intricate process is: Salesmanship.

For years now, we have dreamed of an even more fun, more engaging, more interactive tool to put on our sites: Virtual redecorating. Change the paint. Change the flooring. Change the cabinets and countertops. “You almost love this home, folks, and you haven’t even liked anything else. What can you do to make this place your own?” The name for this again? Oh, yes. Salesmanship.

And guess what? It’s here. Obeo, about whom I knew nothing until this morning, has solved the virtual tour problem in a way I not only don’t hate, but actually like. And they have given me virtual redecorating, Read more

I hear rumors all the time

But I rarely blog about them.

This builder’s going out of business. This one’s filing bankruptcy. This one has plenty of cash on hand. This broker’s dipping into their equity line. This lender’s leaving the business. This agent has a second job.

It’s a real estate blogger’s responsibility – ethically (at least per NAR and common sense), and one assumes legally, to present the best, most accurate information possible. I do this for two reasons –

1) I want readers, potential clients, the general public and my peers to respect my opinion and my credibility.
2) I don’t want to get sued.
3) I really, really don’t want to get sued.

Builders and companies frequently sometimes do file bankruptcy, having sheltered and protected their assets appropriately, and then re-open under a different name. It’s a fact of doing business.

I trade on my credibility – with my clients and potential clients, my fellow Realtors, builders, developers, the public and the media. Damaging that credibility – even by an infinitesimal amount – is not an option.

When on a panel at Inman Connect about blogging, someone asked how I handle writing about local builders and developments, whether I criticize them (in comparison to Jonathan Butler’s excellent Brooklyn blog, which is all about neighborhood and property reviews – and much, much more).

The dilemma is this – step into the world of investigative blogging that might impede one’s ability to do business locally, or write a great piece that might make news and generate conversation – yet alienate those with whom one does business?

I choose to maintain the delicate balance that exists between being a Realtor – a buyer’s agent advocating for my clients’ best interests, a listing agent representing sellers – and the blogger/journalist whose foray into biting investigative journalism/expose could terminate my real estate career. Getting sued could turn out to be the least of my worries if I were to become persona non grata to the community in which I have strived to excel.

Sellsius have the legal primer, summed up with this (all bloggers should read this post):

Bloggers should be careful to couch all writing as Read more

HELOCs Frozen: Preserving American Homeownership

Preserving the American Dream is a position paper authored by John Dugan, Comptroller of the Currency. “Preserving American Home Ownership” is the “initiative” rumored to be pondered by Countrywide Home Loans, IndyMac Bank, and Washington Mutual.

N.B.: The following is rumor; something that was “heard on the street”.

Jeffrey Smith reported, two weeks ago, that Countrywide is freezing some home equity lines of credit. The wholesale lending reps and escrow officers, in my own little network, were buzzing about the possibility of such an action from Countrywide, WaMu, and IndyMac.

More on this rumor as it develops. Today, it’s just a rumor. I think it’s comical the Countrywide won’t do anything without a PR/Marketing twist to it (as a marketer, I love it). It is rumored that the CFC initiative will be “Preserving American Home Ownership”

UPDATE:  While I haven’t confirmed the rumor with Countrywide, there is one disenfranchised Countrywide borrower, getting pummeled by the bubbleheads on a Yahoo message board.

Want to learn how to sniff out bias in the mainstream media? Follow your nose — all the way to Yosemite

John Cook fingered this mash note to Redfin.com in Forbes Magazine. More of the same four-legs-good, two-legs-bad crap we expect from the mainstream media, but it’s short enough that the bias is almost too obvious.

Consider the attributions for quotes:

  • “says Kelman, 37”
  • “Kelman says.”
  • “one Redfin representative wrote recently”
  • “read another posting”
  • “says Steven Del Bianco”

These are all people of whom the writer approves.

But you can’t write a morality play without a villain, so take note of this item, quoted in full:

“In our area the consumer is savvy enough to know that they want value and a high-quality agent,” sniffs Gary Bulanti, a Realtor with Alain Pinel Realtors in Menlo Park, Calif.

Did you sniff out that “sniffs”? Kelman says, then says again. Redfin’s minions write and post. Even investors in past failed discount brokerages get to have their “say,” as it were. But if you are anti-Redfin in even the smallest way, you sniff — you bloated, soul-sucking, counter-revolutionary pig!

It’s all one, really. Redfin will either make money or it won’t, and, in the long run, if it endures into a long run, it will become more like traditional real estate even as traditional real estate becomes more like Redfin.

But just stop for a moment to take account of this:

In a national forest near Yosemite National Park someone affixed fake Redfin bumper stickers to signs, trees and rocks to make the company look like a shameless promoter and defiler of the environment. After Redfin staffers removed the stickers, which they have never used to pitch the Seattle company, the trickster started tossing the signs, attached to weights, into branches of sequoias.

First we have some some kind of demented, Edward Abbee-like monkey-wrenching counter-revolutionary pig of a Realtor, who traipses off from densely-populated Seattle to a national frolicking forest to smear Redfin. And then we have a yellow school-bus full of happy, happy Redfinions — red caps, blue kerchiefs, khaki tunics and cargo shorts — racing off to that same forest to repair this horrendous damage to the natural world, praying all the while to Gaia to heal the deeper wound. On the way home they sing Read more