There’s always something to howl about.

Category: Real Estate (page 139 of 266)

Joe and Marge

In a classic Bawld Guy moment, Jeff Brown reminded us recently that hard work, not a magic formula nor even an ability to predict five out of six Power Ball numbers, is what makes a successful real estate career. All of the motivational seminars in the free world can not replace the experience of one real-life transaction. The fanciest widgets and the sexiest web site flash intros will never replace feet on the ground. Technological applications augment a solid business plan built on fundamentals; they do not replace it. We work in real estate, and there is a reason it is called “work.”

Jeff mentioned that he started his career converting For Sale By Owners (FSBOs). I always suspected we were twins. Just for fun, I thought I would share the story of my first transaction. We all remember our first – with a lot of fondness and more than a little humility. This is just a little walk down memory lane self-indulgence on my part but, if a few more people follow suit and share their “firsts,” we might start to connect the dots for the newer agents. I suspect we will see a common thread of tenacity and drive, stuff that can’t really be taught or learned.

Make no mistake. For the new agent wanting to jump-start a real estate career, this is a difficult market. But then, they all are. The first thing that will strike you is that your new career laughs in the face of the supply and demand laws of nature. There are more real estate agents than there are left-over casseroles needing a shave in my refrigerator right now, and certainly more agents than there are potential customers. This is survival of the fittest, and in the virtual Plinko game that is your office, within seconds of your arrival, every single one of your fellow agents will be plotting to throw you under a bus.

What distinguishes the working agent from the non-working agent is “work.”  A fundamental ingredient of this work is a “client” who wishes to buy or sell a home. Ideally, this “client” is not themselves a licensed real estate Read more

Principles of Flight and Real Estate — Getting Off the Ground

I’ve seen in the real estate business the rough equivalent of what my grandma saw in her lifetime with flight. Born in 1909 she saw in real time the embryonic stage of flight. The first successful flight was only six years before her birth. 60 short years later she watched, on a ‘machine’ not in existence until she’d been married and had four children (three on her front porch), American men land on the moon and come back safely.

Think of where real estate brokerage was 40 years ago. I’d compare it to the planes used in World War I. The MLS existed, but was in book/magazine form delivered by truck, supplemented thrice weekly on paper held together by staples. The establishment of farms for Heaven’s sake, was a huge break through! Knock on the same doors every month? Why would anyone do that on purpose?

There were no teams, not even the biggest thinkers created teams, even in the ’70’s. (at least that I can recall) The team itself was another development thought by most as staggeringly forward thinking. My father didn’t use for sale signs and he was thought of as a maverick. 🙂 We’ve seen the rise of franchises which came like a herd of buffaloes in the ’70’s. Some still exist, most don’t, but the franchise has remained as a significant player.

The first time i heard of an agent being paid a 70% commission split by their broker I thought it was a joke. It was real. It was the beginning of what we see today. 100% commission offices with ‘desk’ fees. In-house service companies — title, lenders, escrow, etc. The shift from the broker/owner being the god of all things to the producing agent should have been predictable. The tail wagging the dog is at least in part why we’re here today. Most high producing agents would fall flat on their faces if they’d been forced to open their own companies. But that’s another post altogether.

Where exactly is here?

It’s business models we’d of laughed at 40 years ago. Marketing not hinted at on TV shows Read more

The Odysseus Medal: “A hopeless attempt to regain what she lost: her sense of trust and self-reliance”

One of the benefits of The Odysseus Medal competition, for me, personally — especially since we started echoing the Long List of nominees — is that I don’t feel as much pressure to weigh in on every last thing. I’ve been writing software in my spare moments for the last two weeks, and, amazingly enough, the world spins on without me. Last week we had Roost.com launch, which I wrote about, but we also had a huge Fed rate cut and the extended coverage of the Ummel lawsuit, and I got to coast on both stories, on the strength of the great work done by other voices in the RE.net.

And, as it works out, this week is an all-Ummel Odysseus Medal Awards post.

We start with Glenn Kelmann, who wins The Odysseus Medal this week for “114 Pounds of Absolute Perserverance”:

Once a buyer’s agent begins making representations about price, it seems possible for him to make negligent representations about price. This doesn’t mean an agent can’t make representations about price, and can’t be wrong when he does. He just can’t be negligently wrong, by withholding material information that a reasonable person would want to see. If the Ummels’ agent did that, he should pay for it.

Of course, since we have no idea from our seat in the peanut gallery what really happened between Ms. Ummel and her agent, the whole debate is academic. The only undeniable fact is that the lawsuit that Ms. Ummel is pursuing, at greater cost than she is likely to recoup, must be like all other forms of revenge, a hopeless attempt to regain what she lost: her sense of trust and self-reliance.

In this respect, the case just illustrates the perils to both parties when a client outsources her brain to a real estate agent, or a stock-broker, or anyone else trying to sell something. It is why we dislike the paternalistic mindset occasionally used to justify brokerage fees, in which talk of “hand holding” is not seen as condescending, fears about “the single biggest purchase in your life” are stoked, and agent attempts to be persuasive during Read more

Which Candidate “gets” Subprime?

Bailout. Stimulus programs. Health care. Subprime. There are lots of problems, or as one of my mentors would say, lots of “opportunities.”

Which Presidential candidate “gets” the subprime fix in which we find ourselves? Great minds must think alike, as Jay wrote about the subprime issue yesterday.

We need a leader who will have the integrity and boldness to do nothing – let the markets sort themselves out. Artificially delaying the inevitable? Great idea.

60 Minutes did quite the story this evening on the subprime problem, summed up with this quote:

“An invitation to fraud … they are being paid not by the veracity of the information but by the consummation of the deal.” … “It would never end; except that it did.”

The economy, not just the American economy, but the economy – the worlds’ economy, is broken.

Excluding all other issues – military, social, international – and focusing on economics and the subprime problem specifically, which of the candidates in the never-ending saga known as the race for the Presidency?

Might it be this one?

“If you believe in free enterprise and capitalism,” (he) said, “you should have the market forces determining interest rates.”

It’s the distortion of interest rates by manipulating the money supply that causes bubbles, like the one in housing, to form, he said, and rarely does the Fed take responsibility when these bubbles burst. “They’re not held accountable,” even after the “total chaos” of the past year.

What do you think? Which one do you trust the most; which one do you mistrust the least?

Where do we go from here?

The Odysseus Medal competition — Voting for the People’s Choice Award is open

There are 18 entries on the short list this week, out of a long list of 78 posts. A lot of news, so a longer short-list. Upside: A boatload of fascinating reading.

Vote for the People’s Choice Award here. You can use the voting interface to see each nominated post, so comparison is easy.

Ahem: Please don’t spam all your friends to come and vote for you. First, what we’re interested in is what is popular among people who would have been voting anyway. And second, I’ll eliminate you for cheating. Don’t say you weren’t warned.

Voting runs through to 12 Noon MST Monday. I’ll announce the winners of this week’s awards soon thereafter.

Here is this week’s short-list of Odysseus Medal nominees:

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“Brian Brady — Erin Brockovich
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“Brian Brady — Ultimate Irony Activerain.com and HouseValues.com- The Ultimate Irony“,
“Brian Brady — Brokers/Lenders The Danger of Real Estate Brokers as Loan Advisors“,
“Charles Feldman — Litigious Clients Real Estate Agents: Are Litigious Clients Out to Get YOU?“,
“Dan Green — Mortgage Rates and the Fed Why Mortgage Rates Didn’t Fall More When The Fed Made A Surprise 0.750% Rate Cut“,
“Doug Quance — Self-Fufilling Prophecy And Now We Shall Witness The Economic Self-Fufilling Prophecy“,
“Dustin Luther — Roost.com Who gave Roost complete MLS listings?“,
“Galen Ward — Benefit versus Features Descriptive text as benefit, not feature“,
“Glenn Kelman — Absolute Perserverance “114 Pounds of Absolute Perserverance”“,
“Jay Thompson — Buyer suing realtor On Buyers Suing Agents“,
“Jay Thompson — Roost.com Roost.com: A New Player in Real Estate Search“,
“Jim Cronin — Slow-Loading 3 Reasons Your Real Estate Blog Loads So Darn Slow, and the Solutions“,
“Joel Burslem — Roost.com Roost.com Kicks over the RE Search Cart“,
“Kris Berg — The Fast Lane Real Estate in the Fast Lane“,
“Michael Wurzer — Branded or Unbranded Media Branded or Unbranded Media, A Video Conundrum“,
“Mike Price — Who Rules The Roost? Who Rules The Roost?“,
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    Deadline for next week’s competition Read more

  • Selling your home in a declining market? The race is to the swift

    This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link):

     
    Selling your home in a declining market? The race is to the swift

    If you’re chasing the market down, chances are you’ll never catch it. The trick to pricing a home for sale is to race the market down.

    How’s that again? We’re in a declining market, that’s understood. It won’t be this way forever, but prices could continue their slow leak for quite a while longer.

    What that means is that, whatever price you might get for your home today, you will probably get still less a month from now or three months from now.

    Hence, you need to make a difficult decision.

    If you don’t actually need to sell right now, you might do better putting your move off for two or three years.

    But suppose instead that you do need to sell your house right now. You have a job offer out of town. You have a big deposit on a new home. You’re expecting triplets. What now?

    Even in the best of markets, sellers can have an inflated idea of the value of their homes. This has certainly been the case in the two years since the market turned. We’ve had a glut of inventory, but much of that has been overpriced inventory.

    Typically, the seller starts out with the price too high, then tries to chase the market down with a series of price reductions — usually too little and too late.

    If your house is not showing, it cannot sell. But if it isn’t showing, this almost always means it is overpriced. The trick to getting it sold now is to price it under the competitive listings.

    The natural impetus, in the face of advice like this, is to say, “I don’t want to give my house away!”

    Who can blame you for feeling that way? But the important question is, “Would you rather hang onto it for a few more months, and then sell it for even less — if you are able to sell it at all?”

    Racing the market down can be a painful decision. But the pain is likely to be Read more

    Watch Out! Here Comes Erin Brockovich!

    Hypothetical TV advertisement (aired at 2:00 AM):

    Did you overpay for your home? Did your real estate agent give you bad advice?

    You may be entitled to damages under a class-action lawsuit if you bought your home between the dates of June 1, 2005 and September 30, 2007. The real estate agent, who received compensation to aggressively represent your interests, may have withheld material information about relevant market data, not limited to but including comparable sales, and current listings, in your neighborhood.

    If the value of your home rapidly decreased soon after you bought it, The Coyote Law Firm may help you recover your loss. The Coyote Law Firm has a 27-year history of representing average people, just like you, who were tricked into buying a home by unscrupulous agents. Nefarious schemes, such as your real estate agent securing financing and withholding appraisal reports, may have been the cause for your loss.

    Contact 1-811-THE-COYOTE to see if you are entitled to damages.

    You had to see this coming. Of course, where else would it start but San Diego?

    NB: This is a satirical article. The author knows of no law firm called “The Coyote Law Firm”. Any similarities to any person, law firm or legal business is purely coincidental. The intent of this article is to highlight the complicated nature of real estate advisory and provoke discussion from industry professionals. The opinion is solely of the author (Brian Brady) and not necessarily that of any other author, real estate or mortgage professional, or real estate brokerage, affiliated with this weblog or website.

    Now If We Could Get General Motors To Build One…

    Doubling Our Collective Fuel Mileage Could Help Drive Oil Prices Down

    Our country has been enduring high oil prices for the last few years – but that transfer of funds out of the country has had a detrimental effect on the economy. And any bad effect on the economy will be felt in the housing sector.

    One of the problems is that Americans like their big cars. Less than 10% of our gasoline is consumed by vehicles that get more than 30 miles per gallon. We just don’t find smaller, more efficient cars all that exciting.

    Well in another year or so, we’ll witness a new breed of car on the road

    And that car will be the Carver… the Cornering Genius.

    I haven’t looked forward to the introduction of a vehicle with this much pregnant anticipation in years. A cool vehicle like this could save an enormous amount of our precious fossil fuels – while reducing emissions. And since 90% of all commuters drive to work – alone – a vehicle like this makes good sense.

    Now if we could just get General Motors to build one…

    So Mr. Buffet Gets Into Insuring Bonds…Then Mr. Ross Gallops In…Coincidence?

    Recent events brought to mind an article published last week by one of my all time favorite Wall Street guys, Max Whitmore. In it Mr. Whitmore spoke of what’s been called the PPT, or Plunge Protection Team. The short version says after the October 19, 1987 stock market crash, this team was put together.

    It’s existence cannot be proved. (Who cares anyway?) I don’t put any credence in any governmental economic ‘Black Ops Team’. I do however acknowledge documented empirical evidence of something happening. This is especially true when it happens more than once — the exact same way — with the exact same timing.

    We can discuss if there really is a ‘who’ behind it over a beer some time.

    Anyway, as Mr. Whitmore documents with historical and empirical evidence, there’s been a pattern a few times now, in which stock market moves cannot be explained. They happened. The way they happened are clone-like in their sameness. Clone-like? How ’bout down to a minute or two in real time? Each time they were bottom line effective. The market turned around.

    He’s seeing it again. And again he cannot explain it — except for the fact it’s there.

    Max Whitmore isn’t just another ‘stock guy’ trying to get publicity. He couldn’t care less. For Heaven’s sakes the last time I checked, the man now works mostly from his home in the midwest. He’s a former S & P trader of the year if memory serves. He’s one of the most revered and respected ‘chartists’ in his industry. In other words, he’s credible in the old school sense of the word.

    Masterful segue to Mr. Buffet and Mr. Ross.

    Keeping the above in mind, why aren’t we seeing more people reporting on what I’m seeing? Here is another, and here.

    The end of 2007 has Buffet getting into the Bond Insurance business. Less than a month later we’re all talking about how to save the bond insurers. Come on now, this isn’t me trying to convince anyone of a new twist on the grassy knoll. This is happening in real time for all to Read more

    Speaking in tongues: A universal contact form for real estate weblogs…

    Nota bene: Slightly amended. Reread carefully.

    I landed on Jeff Kempe’s weblog yesterday. In the way of the web, I don’t remember how I got there or why I came. But I spent a little while looking around, without quite realizing what I was looking for.

    And then it hit me: There’s no contact information. No phone number. No “email me!” link. No contact form. You can find Jeff’s phone number on the About page, but that’s about it.

    Maybe he wants it that way. Maybe it’s none of my business. And maybe I’m not so religious about this stuff that I can go out look for motes — or even beams. But Brian Brady is dead-on when he talks about asking for the business, so I decided to do something for Jeff, whether he likes it or not.

    And: You can play, too.

    What I came up with is a sort of universal contact form for real estate webloggers.

    You can see how it looks on DistinctivePhoenix.com in the image to the right. It’s built to adopt the look-and-feel imposed by your weblog’s theme’s CSS file, so it should look just right when you deploy it. I deliberately made it narrow because sidebars can be pretty tight places.

    The code itself is pretty simple, so if you feel comfortable editing PHP, you can go in and modify it to your heart’s content.

    But if the thought of editing software makes your brain ache, you can deploy this form by editing only five lines of code, all very simple.

    First, you have to email me to get me to send you the form. For the life of me, I can’t figure out how to get a PHP file to download from our server without executing. I can email you a zip file, but our anonymous FTP is so anonymous I can’t figure out its true name.

    Anyway, when you get the PHP file, you’re going to do this — in a text editor, not in Microsoft Word: Edit the second through the fifth lines. They’ll start out looking like this:

    $myName = "Firstname Lastname";
    $myCompany = "The Almagamated ClusterFunk Team";
    $myEmailAddress = "MyEmailAddress@MyFileServer.com";
    $myWeblogAddress = Read more

    Is Roost.com roosting on the brass ring? Start-up Realty.bot comes to market with two firsts: MLS listings and a business plan

    What if somebody built a Realty.bot that seemed to make sense from Day 1? What kind of goof-ball strategy is that in the wacky world of Web 2.0?

    I don’t know if Roost.com really has a business to bank on. The search.bot horizons are starting to look a little crowded. But unlike past entrants, the company is entering the field with two unprecedented features: They’re working from real MLS listings, via member-brokers’ IDX feeds, and they actually have a strategy for monetizing their efforts.

    Yawn! YAMBS again? That’s Yet-Another-Map-Based-Search, a transition in the course of two years from the cool to the commonplace. I haven’t been able to play with Roost.com yet, but my guess would be that they’re behind the curve on cool-factors. The search tools seem to be more than adequate, but Roost is all about search, with none of the social-theater-of-the-mind games the older Realty.bots have been rolling out.

    This is nothing but residential real estate search, with 13 major markets being served at today’s roll-out. Since the listings come from IDX feeds, Roost.com needs at least one broker relationship for every MLS system it wants to service.

    There’s more. Roost.com plans to make money by delivering prospects back to member brokers on a Cost-Per-Click basis. In one scenario, as in the screen-shot above, the broker can have his own private-label Roost.com IDX system hosted on a third-level-domain — e.g., tarbell.roost.com. Every click originating on that site would go back to Tarbell.

    Alternatively, brokers can participate directly on the Roost.com system, with the end-user click-throughs being distributed in a manner similar to Google’s Adwords program: Participating brokers would be selected at random based on their desired spending goals.

    I’m eager to play with the system, because what I’ve seen of it so far seems cool. As an example, the image below shows a windolet of photos. You can have more than one of these open at one time, so you can compare photos from multiple properties.

    Roost.com is essentially a free IDX system for brokers that they would only have to pay for when they are receiving benefits from it — this in the form Read more