There’s always something to howl about.

Category: Real Estate (page 89 of 266)

“Ben Bernanke Is Now One Of Us” Booyah !

I demand that you refinance your home in three months and buy a bank stock“- Jim Cramer

Cheerleader Jim Cramer is now certifiably confident that housing will bottom in 2009 and the economy is saved because of the Fed’s recent action.

Cramer was, of course, ecstatic. This is exactly what he’s been calling for since his infamous “They know nothing!” rant on Aug. 3, 2007. The Fed’s move was so bold that he’s confident that his housing-bottom prediction for the third quarter of next year is virtually guaranteed. And the willingness with which the Bernanke seems ready to throw money at the problem – any amount of money necessary – has opened the door for the lending and borrowing that is so essential to a properly-functioning market and economy. Banks will open their coffers. Mortgage money will be available

Cramer finishes his monologue with the statement, “It’s raining Benjamins from the sky“.  That’s not inflationary, is it?

Check it out.

PS:  I”ve taken over 20 appplications, in the past three days, for refinance transactions; maybe 6-8 can fund.  If the FHFA and Bernanke abolish appraisals for rate/term refinance transactions, which seems like the next step, Bernanke will truly be “one of us”.

I”m not saying nuttin’ other than “operators are standing by

More on Detriot: “Change” is a four letter word, too.

Right before I read Thomas Hall’s earlier post about his experience in Detroit, a friend sent me the ad below.

(Really interesting post, btw, Thomas.)

Considering the situation they are in now, its too bad the Big Three didn’t lose the white collar dinosaurs along with blue collar dinosaur in Thomas’s post. Maybe they would have built cars other than SUVs that Americans would buy and at least have a plan in place for $4/gallon gas.

(Side note: Now that we are down to $1.70/gallon, how much do you want to bet Hummer sales rebound?)

The deathless prose of the Bloodhounds: Against advice of broker

This is a form I wrote for a house that Cathleen may or may not have in play. The details have been fictionalized, but the underlying situation — a house trashed so badly that it becomes a menace to safety — will probably only become more common.

Caveat lector: I am an Arizona real estate broker, empowered by our state’s constitution to prepare documents incident to the transfer of real property. Your local laws will be different.

BUYER IS PURCHASING REAL PROPERTY AGAINST ADVICE OF BUYER’S BROKER

Buyer’s Broker herewith explicitly advises Buyer against the purchase of 123 Mulberry Street, Hadleysburg, AZ.

1. Buyer is aware that property has been looted by a previous owner, tenant, burglar, interloper or tenant-at-sufferance.

2. Buyer is aware that all kitchen appliances, fixtures, counters, cabinets, shelving and appurtenant items have been removed from the property.

3. Buyer is aware that the truss-mounted air-handler has been removed from the property.

4. Buyer is aware that the extent of any additional looting is undetermined and is substantially indeterminable.

5. Buyer is aware that attempts to repair or refurbish this property could result in further damage to the property and/or injury or loss of life to Buyer or Buyer’s contractors or employees.

6. Buyer is aware that repairing or refurbishing a property in this condition is a task that should be undertaken only by experienced building contractors.

7. Buyer is aware that additional damages resulting from attempts to repair or refurbish this property could destroy any or all residual marketable value in the property, with such loss in value being Buyer’s sole responsibility and liability.

8. Buyer is aware that injuries or deaths resulting from attempts to repair or refurbish this property could be construed by courts or insurance companies to be Buyer’s sole responsibility and liability.

9. Buyer is aware that many other residential properties, substantially in turn-key condition, are available nearby at reasonable prices.

10. Buyer has been advised numerous times of Buyer’s Broker objections to this purchase.

ERGO, BUYER ACKNOWLEDGES BY HIS SIGNATURE HEREUNDER THAT BUYER IS PROCEEDING WITH THIS PURCHASE AGAINST THE PROFESSIONAL ADVICE AND JUDGMENT OF BUYER’S BROKER, EXPRESSED REPEATEDLY AND STRENUOUSLY.

Buyer agrees to release, indemnify and hold harmless Buyer’s Broker for any and all losses, Read more

In Detroit, Idle is a Four Letter Word

In a prior life, before becoming a licensed real estate professional, I was responsible for implementing supply chain technology in the discrete manufacturing arena – more specifically – the auto industry.

Over a 7 month period, between 1998 and 1999, I made a temporary home in Sterling Heights, Michigan – 16 mile and Mound Road to be exact – home to Ford Motor Company’s largest real axle and transmission manufacturing and assembly facility – one million square feet of real estate, generating roughly $1.7B of product.  The plant was as vertical an operation as I have seen, short of a foundry.  From raw forged metal, UAW workers machined gears and assembled rear wheel drive transmissions for Ford’s cars and trucks – the Mustang, Lincoln Town Car, Explorer and the Ranger pickup – at the time, some of Ford’s hottest products – the Explorer was selling like crazy.

Before setting foot in Sterling Heights, I was tasked with creating a new sales methodology, tools and implementation plan that calculated the ROI of our supply chain technology solution once implemented.  The sales methodology walked a senior executive through the hard dollar, tangible savings and return to bottom-line profit contribution our technology solution would deliver.

Process created – tools developed – mission accomplished.

Or so I thought.  Now go prove that it actually works.

My first – and my team’s feat was to sell our solution to the VP of Operations.  We walked through the process and learned from our discussions that the VP of Operations was given the directive to reduce Work In Process inventory – WIP had grown disproportionately to end-unit assembled transmissions.  This particular problem was a no-brainer – our sweet spot.  Our solution optimized the flow of WIP and synchronized the flow of raw material to end-unit assembled transmissions via planning and scheduling algorithms.  Cake.

Unique to our solution was our commitment to reduce WIP over a 12 month period.  Our proposition – Ford would pay our travel expenses and small overhead expenses for our 12 month assignment – nothing more UNLESS we delivered results over and above the $20M goal.  Any additional savings above and Read more

For some, the most financially-astute course of action may be to fake their way to foreclosure

This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link).

 
For some, the most financially-astute course of action may be to fake their way to foreclosure

Looking for some good news in the Phoenix residential real estate market? So is everyone else.

New foreclosures are down, as are new foreclosure filings. Lenders are working with homeowners to help them stay in their homes, just in time for Christmas. That’s good news right?

Maybe. It turns out that, of the folks who negotiated loan workouts in the first quarter of 2008, 60% are back in default on their loans.

It gets worse. The typical newer stucco and tile West Valley tract home lost 7.41% of its value. In November. Year-over-year, that house is down 35.46%. Compared to its high in December of 2005, that property is down 48%.

Now there is a silver lining. If you bought your home in 2003 or before, and if you have resisted the impulse to refinance it, you’re probably still ahead of the game, at least by a little bit. And with interest rates at historic lows, this might be the time, finally, to refinance to lower payment.

And investors and first-time homebuyers could not have things better: The selection of available homes is still very broad, prices are below replacement costs, and interest rates are deliciously low.

Better news — for people who don’t own homes: Prices could go a lot lower, and interest rates could drop even more.

But what, then, is the implication for loan workouts? Until home prices stabilize and start to rise again, a loan workout against substantial negative equity might not make the best financial sense.

As we talked about last week, the hit on your credit rating from a foreclosure is a terrible thing. But it’s plausible to me that you could recover from that faster than your home will once again be worth what you’re paying for it.

And that’s the worst news of all: We have mismanaged our economy so dreadfully that, for many people, the most financially-astute course of action they can take is to pretend to be deadbeats, to fake their way to Read more

Is Web Technology Squashing the Little Guy in Real Estate?

About once a week, someone asks Redfin who built our real estate search site (sometimes they don’t ask, they just take). Since we built our site on our own, we can’t recommend a development partner, but we can offer advice to other brokers building MLS-powered sites.

And our first suggestion would be to bring your wallet. If you include all the employee salaries, benefits, hardware, online services, data costs and hosting costs, Redfin will probably spend $4+ million on research and development in 2009.

Is Technology Tilting the Playing Field Toward Large Brokers?

Is Technology Tilting the Playing Field Toward Large Brokers?

That may sound like an imposing number but we have costs you can avoid. We spend at least $1 million on commerce tools for tracking offers and listings, so we can give customers the same 24-hour web support you expect from a bank, limiting the administrative burdens on our agents. A traditional brokerage doesn’t have to invest in this area.

We probably spend another $1 million making mistakes you could easily duck by following us at a safe distance of, say, six months. We try to avoid mistakes, but a mistake is often just a good decision outpaced by circumstances.

For example, when we had no money — scratch that, (thanks David Selinger) when no mapping technology existed that supported user-controlled panning and satellite imagery — it made sense to build our own map. Later, Virtual Earth was the best choice because Google was slow to draw hundreds of property outlines on its map. Now the best choice for us is Google Maps because we figured out how to outline all the properties at once. We just switched to GMaps today, and now it’s on the front page of TechMeme.

I think we’re the only folks in real estate who have used Virtual Earth, Google Maps and a proprietary map, so if you have questions on the relative merits of each service, please just drop us a line.

That leaves the cost at around a few million dollars per year to build a real estate search site with national scale, which is still too expensive. While hardware costs decrease every year, Read more

Colloquial Warming

It is my contention that a man has the right to drop an F-bomb in the privacy of his own Bluetooth as long as it is not: sexually suggestive or within 50 yards of an elementary school; in a restaurant within earshot of my wife before coffee and dessert have been served; or, if the suicide F-bomber himself is the Governor of an actual constitutional (not emotional) state and his cell phone has a federal wiretap warrant included in his original Friends and Family package. These are just a few of my personal demilitarized zones, mind you, and shouldn’t be assigned any politically incorrect weight other than already simply stated. No more, and certainly no less, please.

The emails and phone calls began flooding in shortly after the following career shattering announcement hit the national news wires early Tuesday morning: Ill Governor Blago Peddles Senate Seat For Mucho Dinero.  The first to ring me up was fellow midwest blogging Ambassador Chris Lengquist from BBQ Capital in KC who cut straight to the chase and bluntly asked, “Mr. Petro, are you now, or have you ever been, ‘Candidate Number Five’?”

“(Bleep) no,” I replied into my headset as I shredded my 2005, 6 and 7 tax returns. “And if I (bleeping) was, I wouldn’t admit it over a (bleeping) cell phone,” swallowing my SIM card sideways.

“Then you didn’t try to broker President-elect Obama’s vacant Illinois Senate seat to the highest bidder?”

(Bleep) no,” said I, once again, while simultaneously jiggling loose a paper jam with my toe, slipping the Rolex off my wrist and into a carved-out hardback copy of Dickens’s Great Expectations, and formatting the hard drive of my laptop.  “I can’t even broker a furnished, junior one-bedroom in this heinous market much less a vacant seat of a junior Senator I’ve only met a handful of times…if at all….or ever…allegedly. Besides, downstate Illinois is not in my farming area. I’m a Chicago boy, for crissakes, not (bleeping) Deep Throat,” choking (and doth protesting too much, I suppose).

“So then, you are not trying to ‘parachute’ yourself into the vacant golden chair coveted by Read more

BloodhoundBlog.net can map domains: Your free real estate weblog can look just like you’re hosting it yourself

It took some time to work out all the kinks, but we’ve got domain-mapping working on BloodhoundBlog.net.

What does that mean?

You can set up a free BloodhoundBlog.net weblog, say, something like myblog.BloodhoundBlog.net.

Then you can go to a domain registrar like Godaddy.com and register your own domain, perhaps MyOwnDomain.com. You don’t have to buy a hosting package or anything else, just the domain.

Then, with a little help from us, you can set up MyOwnDomain.com so that it displays myblog.BloodhoundBlog.net.

From the point of view of both your users and search engine spiders, your weblog is hosted at MyOwnDomain.com.

Here’s an example, a melancholy celebration of Dayton by Teri Lussier. The blog is built on BloodhoundBlog.net, but, because of domain-mapping, it looks like it lives on its own server.

WordPress.com charges $10 a year for domain-mapping. We’ll do it for free — with the stipulation that you really are a hard-working real estate blogger. If you’re really pounding out the content, we can help you customize your blog’s theme, too.

Between money work, web work and WordPress work, I’m coming and going, but we have a lot of cool announcements coming up. Stay tuned…

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In Like A Lion – Out Like A Lamb – 15 Minutes Of Fame Is Almost Over

Infamous Real Estate Investor Casey Serin Puts His Web Domain On Ebay

Many of you might remember Casey Serin from a few years ago – a young man who watched too many late night infomercials and bought too many courses from gurus who taught the so-called “secrets” of making the big bucks in real estate – a young man who ventured out and purchased and eventually lost some eighteen or so homes, many of them to foreclosure. He went from zero to negative hundreds of thousands of dollars in no time flat.

Casey was quite the character with his online accounts of his impending doom on his blog Iamfacingforeclosure.com – a blog where he chronicled his dealings on selling his houses by short sale before the lenders foreclosed on them – to an audience of not-always-so-adoring fans who would post some rather scathing comments on his blog with great regularity. His day-to-day existence was a source of vicarious pleasure for many – a lot like witnessing a train wreck in slow motion.

His blog provided such a detailed account of his obvious repeated instances of mortgage fraud that it ultimately had to come down, it was just a matter of time.  Oh there’s much more to that story – you can Google it – and to be honest, I’ve forgotten the bulk of it already. Honestly, I thought Casey was off the stage. For good. Forever.

He has gone through some various machinations chronicled in Wikipedia – and his last gasp of public persona might be the sale of the domain that he set up ostensibly to blog about penny stocks, as evidenced by his listing on Ebay. I guess when you’re no longer detailing your crimes in real-time, nobody really cares anymore.

Casey’s tale of woe was the type of a story that needed a Howard Beal kind of crescendo and ending – perhaps streaming video of the Feds breaking into his apartment to take him away Elian Gonzalez-style, or something else equally as riveting and bizarre.

No, it’s finally over for Casey. He rode that pony of fame for all that it was worth – Read more

If Mortgage Rates Are Not Going Below 5%, Where Are They Going?

There was an interesting post yesterday asking Why Won’t Mortgage Rates Drop Below 5%?.  Brian Brady answered the question with a supply and demand analysis and as usual, I cannot disagree with that reliable old tool (the supply and demand analysis… not Brian 🙂 ).  But I wonder, is there more at work here than supply and demand?  Reading his post reminded me of something I have been telling my clients lately and meaning to share with everyone else:  Belief runs the show.  I suggest that Belief & Fear have supplanted Supply & Demand as our modus operandi.

The markets of late are moving as much on belief as they are on fundamentals.  Don’t get me wrong; I’m not complaining.  At least fundamentals is a player again.  For the last couple of years the markets based their valuations on leverage, blind optimism and a smug sense of higher intellect – all the while recording profits in the sand.  It is kind of nice to see some fundamental analysis come back into vogue.  But we do not relinquish old habits easily.  If I believe that ABC Company will (or should) profit ten cents per share, I will pay a price based on that belief – almost as if the profits were already announced.  This, of course, is what leads us into the strange world of Wall Street where a company’s shares can get whacked even after they announce record earnings IF their earnings turn out to be less than I thought they should be.

What does all this have to do with mortgage rates?  The fed has hinted at buying down mortgage rates using various tools at their disposal.  The market has now partially priced this belief into the mortgage backs.  Rates are down, at least to some degree, because the market believes they will drop even lower.  Once again, we equate assumptions with knowledge.  I don’t mind it up to a point; and here’s the point: lately I have had more than one client elect to wait on their purchase (or at least their purchase mortgage) because they want a piece of that Read more

Why Won’t Mortgage Rates Drop Below 5% ?

Mortgage-backed securities have been on a tear, improving more than a half a point in the last week.  This means that the 5.25% rate, offered at 1 point last Friday, should be offered at a half a point today….BUT….

…that isn’t the case at all.  Mortgage rates may very well rise while the mortgage-backed securities market improves.  I told you that the only relevant indicator of mortgage rates is the mortgage-backed securities marketWhy would I reverse my position?

This conundrum is a Freshman year Macroeconomics 101 case study; supply and demand.  Rates have improved since the Fed hinted at a 4.5% world.  Demand has risen, for mortgage money.  Lenders have cut back their workforce or disappeared altogether.  There just ain’t enough folks to process the paperwork so “supply” is down.

Lenders are making it clear that they just hate refinance transactions, because of nebulous valuations, in their pricing.  Expect refinance transactions to become even more expensive, in 2009. What this means is that your soon-to-be-neighbor , who is buying a home with a 3% down payment, may very well get a 5.25% rate while you, who has more equity (in a similar home), may be offered 5.75% for a refinance.

Lenders won’t get fooled into believing that business will pick up next year so they won’t be adding to the workforce.  Market volatility may encourage profiteering as long as rates stay low.

Marketing the praxis of a Scenius thoughtfully: How can we use dynamism and triangulation to play tunes that make the spiders dance?

Teri Lussier paid me a very high compliment today in email, although I’m sure that’s wasn’t her intent. I expect she was just being matter-of-fact. Here’s what she said:

You don’t do anything without a purpose.

She was asking why I phrase so many headlines in the form of a question, assuming correctly that I do so for marketing reasons. Questions are a pretty common arrow in the copywriter’s quiver. Properly constructed, they are inherently interesting and instantly involving. I’m not as good at this as I plan to be, but one of things I’m looking for in a good question is something that incites at least as much curiosity as it satisfies. I give you the headline of this post as an example.

But Teri’s off-hand remark — “You don’t do anything without a purpose” — means everything to me, because it’s a completely true statement about everything I do — and everything I’ve ever wanted to be. I can’t promise you that I always know what I’m doing, but I always know with perfect certainty what it is I intend to be doing — what objective I hope to achieve by my efforts.

So we’ve been playing this scenius game since Thanksgiving, really since Swallow Hill Road, and it’s fun to explore how much we understand of what we’re doing, and, fun, too, to understand how much there is that we’ve never thought to explore.

Both Cheryl Johnson and I have been rebuilding our “Current Listings” content as Scenius scenes. Why? Because a content management system like a weblog is the perfect way of organizing frequently-edited copy — provide that you have some way of delivering the content in a form you can stand, once you’ve edited it. This is what Scenius — the software praxis, not the social process — is all about.

Stop.

A scenius — lower case — is a metaphor for a kind of communal genius. The word comes from “scene” plus “genius”, and the best example of a scenius that I can offer is the birth of Bebop jazz. When you put smart, well-informed, passionate people together, the synergy of their Read more

Dear Rob- It’s not perfection vs. authenticity, it’s authentic perfection!

“The question, really, is one of perfection vs. authenticity.”

Nice try Rob, but yer still wrong. 🙂

The Notorious ROB Hahn wrote a post in which he called me out for a little discussion we had- who’s “better”- Fred Astaire or Gene Kelly, and he drew some parallels to real estate marketing.  As far as who’s better- in the end, it always comes down to taste, which, as Rob clearly illustrates, there is no accounting for. But he’s young, so I’ll give him a pass for now. Rob Hahn is a smart and funny guy who likes to push the discussion forward, so I’m willing to bet he’ll take this ribbing with the good humor that’s intended, but if not, he’ll probably be blogging about it, and as for me, I love that I have a reason to post some of the finest dancing ever committed to film.

My take away from our discussion and how it relates to real estate is different from Rob’s. It isn’t one of perfection vs. authenticity, the bigger question is from whom can we learn the most and how do we apply it?

Warning: The rest of this post draws parallels between movie musicals and real estate. If that is something that will make your eyes glaze over, this would be a good time to stop reading.

Fred Astaire was famous for his quest for perfection. It was authentic to him. It’s what made Fred, Fred. You might, as Rob Hahn does, find Astaire’s perfection intimidating, but we can learn something about business from him. We can understand that practice does make perfect. That paying attention to details is extraordinarily important, and that perfection is not a bad word.

A white tie and tails in an Art Deco world may not be your thing, here in 2008. But Astaire knew his audience and he knew what he was selling. His audience, 1934, was dealing with a depression. They wanted fantasy, they wanted romance, they wanted to escape, if only for a few hours, from the reality they faced everyday. They wanted to see beautiful people in beautiful clothes, living a beautiful Read more

The Tangled Web of TARP

It’s deja vu, all over again.

Republic Window and Door announced it would be closing its doors next month.   Republic lost over $5 million YTD and $12 million in 2006 and 2007.  Bank of America suspended its line of credit.  Faced with the prospect of going it without any money, Republic rolled over and died.

Workers at the soon to be defunct Republic Windows and Door are staging a 60’s-style sit in to recoup some of their lost vacation and severance pay.   The union demands that the Company make good on its promise to its workers.  Remember, the Company wasn’t bailed out; it lost close to $18 million in the past three years and light isn’t appearing at the end of the tunnel.  President-Elect Obama supports the union’s effort.

Federally-detained Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich and State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias fired a shot across BofA’s bow, threatening to suspend State business with the Bank.

Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich said the state will suspend business with Bank of America Corp. until the lender restores credit to the shuttered Republic Windows & Doors company in Chicago where workers are staging a sit-in.

Blagojevich, a Democrat, spoke at a news conference today after meeting with employees who remained at the factory since Dec. 5, when it closed following the bank’s cancellation of its credit line. Illinois does “hundreds of millions of dollars” in business with the bank, he said. The Illinois Department of Labor will sue the manufacturer if Republic doesn’t respond to employee requests for vacation and severance pay, the governor said in a press release.

Cook County Commmissioner Mike Quigley follows suit:

Cook County Commissioner Mike Quigley will introduce an ordinance to block the state’s biggest county from doing business with Bank of America, he said in an interview.

“I’m usually cautious, but this is an extraordinary example at an extraordinary time,” Quigley said. “When you talk theory, they nod and wink, but when you put in an ordinance, they know you are serious.”

Should the Bank be able to cut its losses and focus on less risky lending practices?  Not if it receives TARP funds figure the Cook Read more

Death, Taxes and Real Estate 3.0

What do death, taxes and real estate all have in common?

Technology.

I’ve blogged on several occasions about Real Estate Web 2.0 and my belief that in the myriad of solutions that have been developed, deployed and adopted, there has yet to be a “real estate agent killer” app.

Not long ago, innovators wanted to develop technology solutions that unleashed the knowledge within the MLS – that is where the perceived value of the real estate transaction was hidden.  Enhanced property search and data analytics was the way to break the current commission based business model, drive down the cost of the transaction and essentially eliminate the middleman – the agent and/or broker.

I was often confused when I read comparisons between the real estate industry and the travel industry.  Again, technology innovators wanted to do to the real estate business what Expedia, Orbitz or Hotwire have done to the travel industry – put the consumer in the driver’s seat and eliminate the middleman – the travel agent.

Not to belittle the travel agent, but clearly much has been learned about the real estate transaction process to determine that real estate is not like the travel industry.  Unlocking the MLS and aggregating data alone does not address the complexity of the real estate transaction, nor does enhanced search engines that exploit mapping technologies.

Real estate is a knowledge-based business.  In creating true innovation, my question is why aren’t technology innovators drawing parallels to other professions that are knowledge-based?    I can’t help to think that there can be a significant disconnect between our current business model, i.e our compensation, and the knowledge and expertise that experienced agents have developed over time.

To better understand the disconnect is to understand how the Pareto principle applies to a real estate transaction.  Could a knowledge management solution address 80% of the process-related issues to buying and selling real estate, leaving the 20% of the really tough, unexpected issues and problems to be addressed and managed by a licensed real estate professional?

I have my business degree in accounting – I never practiced accounting, however, when it comes to tax time, I feel obligated Read more