There’s always something to howl about.

Category: Real Estate (page 98 of 266)

Zillow.com creates a directory of real estate agents who can’t sell

Okay here’s the good news: You have another opportunity to garner a do-follow link from Zillow.com.

And here’s the bad news: For that link to do you any good, your best bet is to be a really bad listing agent. The more listings you can accumulate on Zillow.com — which implies listings that don’t sell — the higher your ranking among your peers.

Yikes!

Or: Too frolicking stoopid…

Zillow’s Professional Directory is new as of this night, so — who knows? — maybe it will get better. In the neighborhoods we understand, it’s an exceptionally valuable glimpse into the world of lister dysfunction: Who can’t sell how much real estate how slowly? If you want to know for sure who cannot sell the greatest quantity of real properties over the longest spans of time, Zillow.com has the answer.

It gets worse: The “Top Zillow All-Stars” are, for the most part, bubbleheads. Everything is measured by contributions, where what Einstein does and a cat-box deposit are equally “contributions” — equally additions to Zillow.com’s great big cat-box of crap.

This is wicked-dumb, far dumber than the usual agent-rating schemes. Where those other “tools” can be gamed, Zillow’s system is based on measuring, first, a meaningless metric, and, second, by actually rewarding incompetence. Quantity not only is not quality, the number of listings a Realtor is carrying is very often a negative indicator — a symptom not of quality performance but of its absence.

Even acknowledging this, measuring velocity of turnover would not improve things, particularly since this is a metric that could be gamed. And even adding in true — meaning verified — list price to sales price ratios might not be enough. Readers here can correct me if they think I’m wrong, but I don’t think there is any reliable, objective way to rank Realtors by quality of performance.

And that’s as may be. It remains that graduating them by their inability to move product is inarguably a terrible way to rank real estate agents. The Professional Directory is a truly amazingly tone-deaf addition to Zillow.com.

As you might have deduced by my absence from these environs, I am very, very Read more

It Takes The RIGHT Kind Of Village

Years ago, when my kids began asking questions about presidential campaigns it became necessary to sit down with them, explaining the foundational beliefs of the two basic ways of thinking in our country. The first of these talks took place with my son, (now the Brown who’s after the ‘and’) ’92 when he was a 12 year old middle schooler, during the presidential campaign. Later, at about the same point in the ’96 presidential race, the talk was repeated with his sister.

Here’s how I explained the difference between the two belief systems. Would love your thoughts. (Ready Pandora?)

A thousand years ago there was a river hundreds of miles long. Two villages were located on the river, but were totally unaware of each other’s existence. Both villages were based upon the water and fish provided by the river.

The first village discovered they had families among them who weren’t doing as well as most others. Today we call those folks, poor. The leaders cared greatly for all the villagers, so this couldn’t be ignored. What to do? They decided the solution was simple.

They went to the best 20% of fishermen in the village and demanded much of their catch be given at no cost to those who were having ‘bad luck’ fishing. Any of these 20% who refused were visited again by the leaders, this time armed with spears and knives. The message was received, and the fish was given away to those who couldn’t or wouldn’t get the job done.

Over time, the most talented fishermen and their families stopped catching so many fish, as having ‘extra’ had become a painful experience. Since they didn’t ‘need’ any more fish, they simply caught just a little more than they necessary to keep their family well fed. They had tired of fishing for others.

The second village had the same problem — there was a small percentage of families who just weren’t makin’ it. The leaders got together and came upon the solution they would employ. They invited the village’s best fishermen to meet with them. They asked these elite fishermen if they’d Read more

How To Guarantee A Plethora of Future Bailouts:

Pass this one…and many many more will follow.

Hell, even the stuff already enacted by fiat guarantees that failure is emboldened.

And soon, every single industry will come crying with their hand out.   Even the hint of passing this one–and the beginnings of it have had the auto industry lining up to start sucking at the teet (or if you believe as I believe, plunging their fangs into the neck) of our worker.   Fear will be the ultimate arbiter.   We have–perhaps too briefly–stood up to the extortion of the unknown for a day or two.  But more folks will come at us with ‘for our own good’ legislation in many forms.

They’ll claim calamity, and they’ll siphon more and more of our power.   The problem that we have is that we’re getting smarter|faster|better & more productive.   We’re creating more to steal, and we still are mollified by an increasing standard of living.   We’re currently creating wealth, knowledge and joy faster than the thieves can steal from us.   And I am glad for it, but I wonder how much we’d accomplish if the stealing wasn’t happening.   What progress has been stolen because of the siphoning off of half or more of our growth, passion, power and love?

It’s not a time where we can blame the seekers of social justice on the left side of the aisle.  The Republicans still rhetorically endorse some ideas of liberty, but in practice, they have been devouring us faster than the liberals.   Government grows and it becomes corrupt when it gains in power.   And seriously, how much cancer is too much?   Even a little must be shocked and starved.

Those in our industry–and I’m talking to anyone lining up at the trough for bailout money–that purport tht they are better equipped to dispense with the fruits of my labor than me…how dare you.  You financiers that tried to maximize risk, knowing full well that the Government would bail you out…you have colluded to weaken the freest society in history.  Mankind has lived thousands of years in bondage and serfdom, and you’ve put us on that path.

Trust and credibility civiity and citizenship Read more

VA and FHA Higher Loan Limit Extension Through 2011: The Main Street Bailout

We don’t have a “Main Street” in Southern California; we have the US Route 101 (or CA State Highway #1). We call it the Coast Highway, the Pacific Coast Highway, or the PCH.  When I think of a bailout plan for Main Street, I think of it for homes within 5-10 miles of the PCH.

We got that “Main Street bailout” a few months back.  FHA loan limits were hiked to as much as $729,000, earlier this year and the VA followed suit, this summer.

Both provisions are gone after Christmas…unless…

…President Bush gets to leave a legacy for the Main Streeters on the coasts.  The scuttlebutt in D.C is that President Bush wants to extend the life of those temporary loan limits, for FHA and VA, through 2011.

This program has helped us a lot.  Consider that California loan originators have funded more FHA product in August, 2008 than we have in the prior two years.  When declining market conditions limited agency jumbo loans to 85% loan-to-value, FHA picked up the slack.  With the tenuous outlook for PMI companies, FHA and VA jumbos are filling the vacuum for new home buyers.

It is further rumored that these “guvvie jumbos”, limited to purchase transactions, will be made available for refinance transactions; 100% loan-to-value for VA and 95% loan-to-value for FHA.  The rumor is that President Bush believes that government financing can provide relief for homeowners stuck in jumbo ARMs, soon to be adjusting.

It’s conjecture at this point but we may just have these loan products until 2011.

Tom’s Top Ten Reasons He Doesn’t Like the Bailout….

  1. Because a government intervention the financial systems rarely works well.
  2. Because it fails to acknowledge the fundamental shift that is occurring in our society as we move from being “overleveraged” to using credit responsibly.
  3. Because Nancy Pelosi likes it.
  4. Because no one has been able to prove that by buying this garbage from the banks, it will do anything to actually help credit get done.
  5. Because Barney Frank likes it.
  6. Because JP Morgan and the FDIC were able to work out a very smooth transition when Washington Mutual closed down last week and it was done without any unusual interventions.
  7. Because the bailout refuses to consider that not all banks are equal.   Those who are most likely not going to make it would get the same government money as those who are perfectly healthy.    That’s just not right.
  8. Because Rep. Peter Hoekstra (R-Michigan) voted against it, and I have a lot of respect for Pete.
  9. Because the Main Stream Media is preaching an unbelievable amount of panic, distrust and fear and they are doing it with items that are not factual.
  10. Because the government hasn’t done a good job (because I don’t believe they can) in showing that there’s a connection between buying bad assets from the banks and helping Main St.
  11. Because Citigroup and the FDIC worked out a “take over” of Wachovia without any significant market disruptions and without any unusual bailout efforts.

Okay, so it was actually 11.   The point is, the bailout is not good for our country and not good for our economy.   Are banks going to fail?  Yep.   Do I hope that “my bank” isn’t one of them?  Yep.   But like Jeff Brown says, we know how the story ends up and we’ll all be fine.

Tom Vanderwell

Front Seat to History

Whether or not you approved of the bailout, you have to count yourself lucky to be witnessing an historic event.  Take a good, hard look at what is unfolding before us.  One elected official after another said they could not vote for this legislation because their constituents back home were not in favor of it and would vote them out of office.  As a matter of fact, this was part of an openly discussed game plan yesterday before the vote:

Both parties were also scouring the political map to identify lawmakers who face little or no opposition for re-election in November, knowing they would be more willing to vote yes. New York Times News Service

Think about that again.   They wanted to vote for it, but the people they represented were overwhelmingly against it and would have thrown them out for approving the bill.  How often does anything of REAL importance happen this close to an election?  This is so close to election time that the legislators are accountable for their votes.  Imagine that!  And they are scared.  They can not do their politics as usual because they don’t have time so spin it.  This is a magical time to witness: politicians acting out of accountability rather than self-interest.  Were that it was always true…

In a declining market, buying a short sale is too tall an order

This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link).

 
In a declining market, buying a short sale is too tall an order

Is it time to kick the stilts out from under short sales?

Right now in most neighborhoods in the Phoenix area, the houses that will draw the most attention from buyers will be either short sales or lender-owned homes. They’ll be in all states of repair, but the prices will be very aggressive.

And of those homes, the lender-owned homes will actually sell. They may be completely trashed, but the people whose job it is to sell those properties are judged by how quickly they can unload non-performing assets. Make an aggressive offer and you’ll get a aggressive deal.

There are downsides, of course. You can inspect all you want, but don’t expect repairs. Because of this, many lender-owned homes will not qualify for FHA or VA financing. And once escrow closes, you’ll have to restore the home to livable condition.

By contrast, a short-sale home might be in better condition. And it might be even more aggressively priced. The trouble is, the price in the MLS listing will be meaningless. The seller can approve that price, but the seller’s lender has to approve it as well. And the people who approve short sales aren’t judged by how quickly they sell the home but by how much money they bring in.

The lender can take from 60 to 90 days to respond to your offer for a short sale home. And the response may be to counter at a higher price. If you counter back, you may wait another 30 days for a response.

Here’s the worst part about this unwieldy procedure: Home prices are still falling in the Valley. You could wait months to get approval on a contract for a house that is now worth tens of thousands of dollars less than what you offered for it.

My take? We need to cut short sales off at the knees. It seems foolish for Realtors to take them as listings, and beyond foolish to encourage buyers to pursue them. Lender-owned homes are offered Read more

Promoting Affordable Housing

I didn’t believe it when I read it; the bailout bill is “earmarked” and ACORN is one of the beneficiaries of the largesse.   ACORN may control up to 20% of the $700 billion proffered by the Bush/Obama Bailout Plan.

ACORN?  Are you kidding me?  THIS is what ACORN really is (from Sol  Stern):

ACORN’s bedrock assumption remains the ultra-Left’s familiar anti-capitalist redistributionism. “We are the majority, forged from all the minorities,” reads the group’s “People’s Platform,” whose prose Orwell would have derided as pure commissar-speak. “We will continue our fight . . . until we have shared the wealth, until we have won our freedom . . . . We have nothing to show for the work of our hand, the tax of our labor”—claptrap that not only falsifies the relative comfort of the poor in America but that also is a classic example of chutzpah, given ACORN’s origins in a movement that undermined the work ethic of the poor. But never mind—ACORN claims that it “stands virtually alone in its dedication to organizing the poor and powerless.” It organizes them to push for ever more government control of the economy, as if it had learned no lessons about the free-market magic that made American cities unexampled engines of job creation for more than a century, proliferating opportunity and catapulting millions out of misery.

Remember, ACORN has been one of the largest groups to criticize “predatory lending” and the use of sub-prime loans.  Here’s ACORN President Maude Hurd, speaking about last night’s Presidential Debate:

“Given the recent turmoil in our financial markets and the ongoing negotiations around a bailout package for Wall Street, it’s not surprising that much of the debate focused on the current economic crisis, which was in many ways predictable.  ACORN has been sounding the alarm for years as more and more deregulation stripped protections for consumers and basic safeguards of sound lending.

Senator McCain failed to acknowledge the trigger of this explosive crisis: predatory lending, which entrapped hundreds of thousands of homeowners into toxic mortgages they could not afford fueling record numbers of foreclosures.  If Mr. McCain is unwilling or Read more

Ever See Or Hear Of A Tornado Touching Down On An Entire Continent?

Yesterday as I was waiting in my satellite office for the ‘other Brown’ to show up for a planning session, I laid my book down, taking advantage of the rare opportunity to sit quietly and think, sans any communications devices invented after 1951. I pondered more deeply what a previous morning conversation had reenforced for me.

Since my firm deals with builders and lenders in several states, I’m often privileged to hear what local market experts have to say. Much of the time it falls under the heading of, ‘What the hell?!’, but sometimes you find builders/lenders who’ve really drilled down into their corner of the real estate world. They ignore everything but empirically documented facts. Then with careful, objective analysis, they search for any opportunities hiding behind all the LameStream media’s ongoing fertilizer convention.

The phone call.

One of the builders I especially like and trust, had just hung up with a local lender he both trusted and respected. I’ll cut to the chase here. The lender knows what my firm’s been doing in his state. (For the time being, the lender, builder, and state must remain anonymous, by their request.) We’ve been tearin’ it up. They wanna go off the grid so to speak, setting aside a few boatloads of capital to lend to our clients, (not exclusively) without the constraints of Fannie and Freddie.

The builder? He’s no small fish, but his net worth doesn’t require three commas yet. 🙂 His product has been sellin’ itself during this correction. It still is. His biggest problem today? He can’t find enough land — or when he does, a bigger fish plays hardball and shoves him out the door. Most recently he walked away after being under contract. Now that’s hardball.

Also, this builder told me the recent builder surveys in the region as a whole, showed their confidence as an industry had risen almost 20%. Go figure. The lender is willing to revert to classic Old School lending by opting out of the secondary market and keeping these loans. What a concept. This will enable them to loan on a virtually Read more

“Buy when there’s blood in the streets”

I wrote $975,000 in new contracts today. No way they’ll all be accepted, but they’re strong offers backed by a lot of cash. If we don’t get these properties, we’ll go for others. Amazingly, the quality of lender-owned properties seems to be going up even as the prices go down. The lord alone knows what will happen in Washington and Manhattan, but it’s a good time — for now, at least — to be a Realtor in Phoenix.

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Break Up The Banks

Wanna have some fun?  I have an idea about how to “save” the banking industry.  Through mergers and acquisitions, the banking cartel grew to become infallible.  Dave Shafer pins the tipping point of this crisis to the repeal of The Glass-Steagall Act of 1933.  I’m not so certain he’s incorrect.

The intention of The Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 was to avoid this:

Commercial banks were accused of being too speculative in the pre-Depression era, not only because they were investing their assets but also because they were buying new issues for resale to the public. Thus, banks became greedy, taking on huge risks in the hope of even bigger rewards. Banking itself became sloppy and objectives became blurred. Unsound loans were issued to companies in which the bank had invested, and clients would be encouraged to invest in those same stocks

Do the 1920’s sound like this decade? As Dave Shafer points out,  the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999 ENCOURAGED  the financial behemoths  explaining  “economies of scale” as the primary reason for the repeal of Glass-Steagall.  While financial institutions with strong technology infrastructures can reduce the cost of banking processing functions, the GLB act of 1999 discouraged what Greg Swann calls “flinty banking practices” and encouraged rampant speculation, this time in risky home loans rather than new stock issues.

We were so interested in free online banking that we fed the growing gorilla until he bloated to 1600 pounds. Today, we’re shocked that he busted out of the cage and is chewing up the zookeepers and zoo patrons.

Let me try an analogy for those less interested in economic history .  You once had neighborhood grocery stores.  Certainly, economies of scale favor the supermarket approach.  Distribution costs drop which lower retail food prices.  As those supermarkets vertically integrate, they branch out into ownership of trucking companies, slaughterhouses and farms.  Prices keep dropping and everybody is happy. A chicken in every pot becomes two and all praise is given to the phrase “economies of scale”

Then, a company like Starbucks comes around and the demand for coffee, on a retail level, skyrockets.  Supermarket companies, now owning the commodities Read more

Federal Bailouts, World Crisis… What About Little Ol’ Me?

Lots of talking heads.  Lots of outrage.  Even a little fear.  Keeping up with economic developments lately is taxing and I mean taxing in its most negative “IRS and April 15th” connotation.  Last night Brian Brady and I were interviewing Matt Padilla for Bloodhound Radio.  It was a great discussion and got me to thinking about what is (or rather should be) important.  I mean, the whole thing can be overwhelming: how did we get here, who’s to blame, what are the macro ramifications of this massive federal bail-out… makes one feel small and even a little lonely in the midst of this big economic world gone ’round the bend.

So I stopped on the way home for a big shot of wheat grass (substitute whatever manly libation you prefer here), calmed down and eventually found myself a little less interested in what it all means and a little more interested in what it all means to the real estate agent on the street.  In other words: What is the next step?

Last week I suggested that Wall Street’s Meltdown may actually help the housing industry.  Consumer debt will dry up in the credit crunch and this bail-out will not have much impact in that arena.  The financial industry is going to come out limping and take some time to lick its wounds.  Consumer debt has always been a risk and will end up on the back burner for a while, but the need for profits is always there; where will it come from?  Where is the supply of money going to be greatest?  Thanks to Uncle Sam it is going to be mortgage money that flows freely.  But flowing freely is not the same as distributed evenly and this is where the real potential lies for homeowners as well as real estate agents.

By the end of the year conforming loan limits are going to drop.  Here in San Diego they should end up around $625,000.  Under that limit there is going to be a large supply of federally backed (and encouraged) cheap money.  Over that limit, however, it is going to be Read more

Roderick T. Long: “The vast regulatory apparatus that emerged in the late 19th and early 20th centuries was thus specifically campaigned for by the business community.”

From The Art of the Possible:

There’s a popular historical legend that goes like this: Once upon a time (for this is how stories of this kind should begin), back in the 19th century, the United States economy was almost completely unregulated and laissez-faire. But then there arose a movement to subject business to regulatory restraint in the interests of workers and consumers, a movement that culminated in the presidencies of Wilson and the two Roosevelts.

This story comes in both left-wing and right-wing versions, depending on whether the government is seen as heroically rescuing the poor and weak from the rapacious clutches of unrestrained corporate power, or as unfairly imposing burdensome socialistic fetters on peaceful and productive enterprise. But both versions agree on the central narrative: a century of laissez-faire, followed by a flurry of anti-business legislation.

Every part of this story is false. To begin with, there never was anything remotely like a period of laissez-faire in American history (at least not if “laissez-faire” means “let the market operate freely” as opposed to “let the rich and powerful help themselves to other people’s property”). The regulatory state was deeply involved from the start, particularly in the banking and currency industries and in the assignment of property titles to land. (Even such land as was not stolen from the natives was seldom appropriated in accordance with any sort of Lockean homesteading principle; instead, vast tracts of unimproved land were simply declared property by barbed wire or legislative fiat.)

The early republic’s two major political factions – to oversimplify a bit, call them the Jeffersonians (as represented by the Democrats) and the Hamiltonians (as represented successively by the Federalists, Whigs, and Republicans) – disagreed primarily about which forms of governmental interference to emphasise. To be sure, both sides paid lip service (and sometimes more than lip service) to the “Principles of ’76,” i.e., the libertarian ideals enshrined in the Declaration of Independence; but each side quickly deviated from those principles when doing so served its economic interest. The Hamiltonians, whose chief base of support was in the urban financial centers of the northeast, called for Read more

Newt Gingrich: Kill the Paulson Plan. Hard.

US News:

A few quotes and Gingrichian observations:

1) He called it a “stupid plan” that looks like it had been designed by autocrat Vladimir Putin. He also said it will be a “nightmare” to implement and full of corruption.

2) He said the Paulson Plan would be a “dead loser” on Election Day that will “break against anyone who votes for it.” It will hurt even worse with the 2010 election once Americans see what a drag it is on the economy when implemented.

3) He recently chatted with economic historian Alan Meltzer who advocated doing nothing rather than implanting the Paulson Plan. Meltzer apparently joked to Gingrich that this was about the third time he had seen Wall Street scream “the apocalypse was nigh” only to have the economy keep right on chugging along.

4) Gingrich thinks that if the Paulson Plan isn’t passed by this weekend, it is dead and the White House better have a Plan B, economic-growth package ready. Right now, he still thinks it has an 80 percent chance of passage, partly because of Paulson’s apocalyptic tone that if a bill isn’t passed, “the whole world will end on Tuesday.”

5) He advises McCain to play the maverick and come out against the Paulson Plan. Then it will be the Obama-Bush plan.

Much more here.

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Funny, ha ha

I grab myself by the ear and drag my own sorry ass to the ‘place’ where I’m supposed to be writing something significant on a daily basis–a small, shady library room in the front of our 1890s Victorian house in Chicago. I look around and consider my resources: Mission style writing desk and leather straight back chair; Laptop, printer, copier; A collection of books by the greatest writers who have ever lived (and died); Google, Dictionary.com, iPhone; Sleeping dog, indifferent cat, supportive third wife; Eight years of The New Yorker stacked on every available dusty surface; Picture window; Bucolic setting; Liberal arts degree from a Pennsylvania state college.

Lamps, photographs, framed art. Unlimited coffee less than 20 feet away…

Viscerally speaking, I have only one excuse–nothing is funny to me these days. I’m just not feeling it. I stare at the New Yorker Cartoon Caption Contest every week and no juice. Nada. Zilcho. I hate Seinfeld anymore. Larry David, too. What a schmuck.

“Have you written anything today?” she asks from the other room. The television room across the hall where fallen stars dance and more desperate housewives than mine (I would hope) plot their own nefarious outcomes.

“Yes. The electric bill,” I say. “I wrote a check for the electric bill.” Ha ha funny.

“What about the mortgage?” On a different subject now. Diversion from the creative to the financial. Not very funny. (What she really means is ‘have you sold any real estate lately?’)

Good question. What about the mortgage? We’re being triple escrowed by our lender because the Cook County Tax Assessor’s office incorrectly recorded our deed while in a land far, far away called Reality, the whole banking industry is in a wind sheared tailspin. I look at the Due Notice.

“Too many digits,” I say, really wanting to run it through the shredder. “I’ll do that tomorrow before I work on my book. We have until the 15th.” Like something magical is going to happen between now and the ides of procrastination. An economic recovery package perhaps. Not even Ha ha. Barely LOL.

“How is the book coming?” she asks. Read more