There’s always something to howl about.

Category: Real Estate (page 99 of 266)

Wall Street bailout plan to include more than bad mortgage debt: Feds to absorb unpaid bar bets, inadvertently laundered postage stamps, unredeemed soda cans and insufficient tooth-fairy disbursements

Totally absurd? Think twice:

In the dark of night over the weekend when most people were snoozing, the Treasury dramatically expanded its bailout plan to include buying student loans, car loans, credit card debt and any other “troubled” assets held by banks.

The changes, which were included in draft language that also opened the bailout program to foreign banks with extensive loan operations in the United States, potentially added tens of billions of dollars to the cost of the program.

Although it was a major addition to what was already the nation’s largest-ever bailout, it did not become part of the debate between Democrats and the Treasury over details of the program. A Monday counterproposal by Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher J. Dodd included such consumer loans as well as mortgages, just as the Treasury’s draft did Saturday night.

“The costs of the bailout will be significantly higher than originally considered or acknowledged,” said Joshua Rosner, managing director of Graham Fisher & Co., who charged that the Treasury and Federal Reserve have not been “forthright” about the ultimate cost to the public. The plan gives Treasury the discretion to buy the non-mortgage loans and securities in consultation with the Fed.

Conservatives cited the move as a sign that the massive plan to take over bad mortgage debt already is opening the door to further government bailouts.

“Such a large takeover by the government will surely be accompanied by adverse, unintended consequences,” said Pat Toomey, president of the Club for Growth, a conservative advocacy group. “Already, other companies and industries are lining up at government’s door asking for their own bailout.”

In my column for this week’s Republic, I argue that buyers should not even consider bidding on short sales: Too much hassle to catch a falling knife. In the same respect, in this climate, I can’t see any reason for sellers to participate in the short sale process — except, arguably, to extend the amount of time they remain in the home without making any payments.

Capitalism rewards thrift, zeal, planning, self-reliance. Socialism in all its many flavors rewards theft — so long as there is anything left to Read more

Bloodhound Blog Radio Interviews Matt Padilla, author of Chain of Blame

We interviewed Matt Padilla, author of Chain of Blame- How Wall Street Caused the Mortgage and Credit Crisis.  This book, released in May, 2008, details a history of non-prime lending, the S&L crisis, securitization of mortgages, and what went wrong.

Download and Listen to the 45 minute interview here

An excerpt from the book, by co-author Paul Muolo:

He had made this argument before subprime lending began to boom in 2003. He believed it down to his toes — that Wall Street (despite his contempt for it) would keep the housing market honest because the Street controlled the mortgage bond business, where most of the money for home lending came. It was in the Street’s best interests. I wasn’t so sure. I became even less sure when the losses (the nice word being write-downs ) at banks and Wall Street firms topped $300 billion in the spring of 2008. To me and my co – author, Mathew Padilla, something had gone awry. A million or so people had lost their homes to foreclosure. Two or three million would follow in their path by the end of the decade. It wasn’t just housing and mortgages that were ailing. It seemed as though the nation was getting hit from all different directions: rising energy and commodities prices, falling home values, banks pulling credit lines of all sorts including commercial and student loans. The mortgage virus had spread, infecting the entire body. It was as though the U.S. economy, which had burned so brightly during the Bush years, was a mirage. Angelo had been wrong. The capital markets — Wall Street — had failed us. This is the story of how it happened.

Matt is also a business and finance columnist at the Orange County Register, in Southern California and hosts Mortgage Insider Blog.

Download and Listen to the 45 minute interview here

The Vanderwell Proposal – “Project Rebuild Banking”

Since Secretary Paulson put his proposal in three pages, I’m going to lay out my proposal in less space than that.   Here goes:

Point #1 – The Treasury is hereby authorized to spend up to $700 Billion to stabilize the banking and financial services sector in such manner as it sees fit.   There will be two main priorities in their decision making:  a) To increase the flow of credit in the banking and mortgage markets so that the healthy of the economy is improved, not hindered and b) To increase the likelihood that eventually the taxpayer will receive a profit rather than incur a loss.

Point #2 – Any institution that sells any “troubled” assets to the  Treasury shall sell them at a price that is established by joint decision of the Treasury, the institution, and a committee formed of 2 members of the Senate Banking Committee, the Vice President of the United States, and 2 members of the House Banking Committee and the chairman of the SEC.   The target price shall be no more than 45 cents on the dollar.   Under no situation will the purchase price be more than 50 cents on the dollar without the joint approval of the House and Senate Banking Committees, and no more than 65 cents on a dollar without approval by the full Congress.

Point #3 – Any institution that sells troubled assets to the Treasury shall immediately reduce their dividend to 20% of what it was (can be adjusted for inflation annually according to the CPI), and all officer level employees (from the CEO down 3 levels on the corporate hierarchy) will have their salary reduced to a maximum of 3 times the average salary that they pay their employees.   So if the average Bank of America employee makes $50,000 per year, the CEO’s salary will be no more than $150,000.

Point #4 – If the institution is currently servicing the debt, they will remain servicing the debt and will provide monthly reports to the Treasury on the status of the payment history, collection procedures and, if necessary, foreclosure efforts.

Point #5 – If a bank, like Read more

What happened? “Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac exploded, and many bystanders were injured in the blast, some fatally”

Things fall apart: Kevin Hassett at Bloomberg.com is getting death threats over this news analysis:

The financial crisis of the past year has provided a number of surprising twists and turns, and from Bear Stearns Cos. to American International Group Inc., ambiguity has been a big part of the story.

Why did Bear Stearns fail, and how does that relate to AIG? It all seems so complex.

But really, it isn’t. Enough cards on this table have been turned over that the story is now clear. The economic history books will describe this episode in simple and understandable terms: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac exploded, and many bystanders were injured in the blast, some fatally.

Fannie and Freddie did this by becoming a key enabler of the mortgage crisis. They fueled Wall Street’s efforts to securitize subprime loans by becoming the primary customer of all AAA-rated subprime-mortgage pools. In addition, they held an enormous portfolio of mortgages themselves.

In the times that Fannie and Freddie couldn’t make the market, they became the market. Over the years, it added up to an enormous obligation. As of last June, Fannie alone owned or guaranteed more than $388 billion in high-risk mortgage investments. Their large presence created an environment within which even mortgage-backed securities assembled by others could find a ready home.

The problem was that the trillions of dollars in play were only low-risk investments if real estate prices continued to rise. Once they began to fall, the entire house of cards came down with them.

Take away Fannie and Freddie, or regulate them more wisely, and it’s hard to imagine how these highly liquid markets would ever have emerged. This whole mess would never have happened.

Read the whole thing.

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San Diego Housing Industry Outlook For 2009

I’m going to republish a little forecasting I did, about ten months ago, on Active Rain.  I’ll offer some comments in italics (discussing 2009) and welcome yours in the comments section:

Lenn Harley caught something I said a year ago and found it to be prescient (her word); I wish I were wrong.   The comments in her post suggest that I should talk about the upcoming year; I really don’t want to do that because I don’t have great “visions” for 2008.  Some thoughts about the next 12-18 months:

1- More not less of the foreclosure activity we saw these past 5-6 months will continue through 2008.  A combination of ARM resets, tightened loan guidelines, and affordability problems will affect American homeowners in a  dramatic way.  It’s easy to levy the blame on Greenspan, mortgage originators, Wall Street, or REALTORS but at the end of the day, the “greed” ultimately came from the homeowners.  The American homeowner, aided by some opportunistic market participants, got drunk on the drug of materialism, financed by a world wide capital glut.He partied up the profits while the clock struck twelve.  The foreclosures and continued short sales will be the hangover from the five year orgy we had in the first part of the decade.

Well, duh.  I didn’t need a looking glass to see that.  It now looks like Wall Street was the sugardaddy that financed this party, by borrowing from foreign investors.  They’re paying dearly for it today.  The good news for 2009 is that those drunken sailors from Wall Street (my apologies to beer-sipping Navy veterans) are getting rounded up and placed in rehab programs.  We might see some stability after this most recent intervention.

2- The housing recession will extend to the American economy. Homeowners drew upon home equity like a a high-roller draws chips at the Venetian hotel in Vegas.  Nobody will “stand up” for them with the bookies anymore.  The money spigot is shut and won’t be turned on no matter what the Fed does to interest rates.  Less money means less disposable spending dollars.  While, Virginia, there still is a Santa Claus, he Read more

This endless election season may give the real estate market time to self-correct before new legislation can make things worse

This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link).

 
This endless election season may give the real estate market time to self-correct before new legislation can make things worse

Looking for a silver lining amidst the black clouds of financial news? Here’s one: The fact that we’re in the middle of an election campaign gives us at least a fighting chance of solving our own problems without more government interference in the real estate market.

Everything that’s happened so far has been a triumph for the government approach to what should be free markets. Since the 1930s, the Federal government has been guaranteeing home loans. That made it easier for Americans to buy homes, but it dulled that flinty due diligence we expect in bankers.

Our tax laws favor homeownership with deductions, credits, capital gains exclusions and favorable loan terms. It’s nice to save on taxes, but these incentives induce us to own homes where we might otherwise do something else with our money.

In the recent past, the Federal government decided everyone should own a home, no matter what. After 9/11, the Federal Reserve Bank reduced the cost of money to almost nothing. Hundreds of different arms of government at all levels gave away financial incentives to homeownership. And the U.S. Treasury seemed to hint that American mortgage-backed securities were as safe as houses.

This has turned out to have unhappy consequences. That old-style flinty banker could never conceive of houses losing even 20% of their value, where the Phoenix market has given back twice that much since the market peaked.

Even so, the sky has not fallen. Wealth is not dollars, wealth is the productive power of the American economy. The majority of Americans still have significant equity in their homes, with many of them being owned outright.

What’s happened is that lenders and their financiers and, unfortunately, the American taxpayer, have taken a hit to the wallet. If the Federal government can restrain itself from overreacting, we’ll dig ourselves out in due course. And that’s why we’re blessed by this election: It will be at a least a year before the Feds Read more

Outwit. Outplay. Outlast. Hmmm…

On my way back from British Columbia this past week, I had time to think. (Truly a dangerous thing…). This is a difficult market. We live in difficult economic times. To win, we (and our businesses) have to be survivors. That brings to my mind THIS:

Yeah, I know a cheap spoof off of the series. Then came an interesting question into my mind. WHO? Who are we supposed to Outwit? Outplay? Outlast? It, in my opinion is not Who. It is what. It is the marketplace.

Sometimes when times are tough our character comes out as we lash out. We let ourselves think that other REALTORS in our market are our competition. We try to Outwit. Outplay and Outlast them. Bloggers do the same. So do SEO folks. (I claim citizenship in all three of those countries…and each is the same iin this regard.)

One of the things that I enjoyed most on my trip to Canada was that everyone was willing to share ideas and help each other. The synergy I found shored up my belief that by finding those that are trustworthy and sharing with them, one can survive difficult times more easily. The arena of ideas in blogging is a big place. So is the real estate marketplace. SEO likewise.

We can Outwit. Outplay. and Outlast the market more easily…if we Wit. Play. and Last. Together.

(Hint: the TOGETHER part is the key…)

… Reality Steps into View … No Longer Living Lies in Paradise

You never know when inspiration will strike you … for me – in the strangest places.

In a comment I posted to Greg’s latest post regarding the irony of our President’s administration’s policies and actions regarding the current financial meltdown, I lamented that when I read the news, blogs and watch the news regarding this domino-effect collapse of our financial markets, I get so angry I can’t see straight.

My partner has banned me from CNN, NPR and talk radio.   This is not good for me – I am not one to sit in silence – at least not for long.

Banned from the TV and radio BUT not the PC!

Okay – to avoid driving everyone crazy, I decided to put my mad DJ skillz to work on Blip.fm – frequented by my fellow Twitterers.  Mindless entertainment – for me an opportunity not to sit in silence.   I love the fact that I can create my own playlist of favorite songs – my own virtual radio station.  Why can’t I download this list directly to my iPod?

Twitter has opened my eyes to so many new tools and sites – time vacuum is the technical classification for toys ..er tools like Blip.fm.

Anyway – in an attempt to clear my mind of the thoughts of politics and dreams lost while living under a sham, socially conservative, laissez-faire regime masked as a wholesale broker, casting a blind eye while stuffing the pockets of special interest, I decided to search for happy, uplifting songs written and sung by my favorite artists – armed with a double single malt scotch on the rocks parked next to the mouse.

My music taste is varied to say the least – open and non-judgmental – truly all inclusive really.  From good ol’ country to techno-80s – classical to jazz.  I mean – come on – how can you not like a song with words like “… I can’t get no satisfaction and my tractor don’t get no traction?”

Okay – maybe it’s just me.

** searching for happy and uplifting songs **

So – I come across a song titled “Fairy Tales” – sung by one Read more

Will The Democrats Endorse Hank Paulson’s Mortgage Bailout Plan?

This Presidential election campaign is exciting to watch.  Team Obama benefits from the continued free fall on Wall Street.  Sean Purcell reminds us that folks on that side of the aisle like to say “I’m from the government, we’re here to help you” yet the other side is the one proposing massive government intervention by purchasing defaulted mortgage loans from troubled banks.

This is a rework of the RTC plan.  I speculated that it might happen, after reading this article, on Wednesday:

There is something we can do to resolve the problem. We should move decisively to create a new, temporary resolution mechanism. There are precedents — such as the Resolution Trust Corporation of the late 1980s and early 1990s, as well as the Home Owners Loan Corporation of the 1930s. This new governmental body would be able to buy up the troubled paper at fair market values, where possible keeping people in their homes and businesses operating. Like the RTC, this mechanism should have a limited life and be run by nonpartisan professional management.

Sounds like a plausible emergency stabilization plan, right?  Will Congress fast-track this through or will we see Nancy Pelosi go against what Congressman Frank believes, and start saying that the government should not be interfering in financial markets?

Disarray favors Obama.  Stabilization favors Mc Cain.  Will Congress do everything they can to delay this emergency plan until after the election.  After all, they are the government; they’re here to help (if you vote for them).

Point of Disclosure:  In all fairness, Barack Obama conditionally endorsed the Paulson Plan this morning.  The question is , “Can he get Pelosi to play along?”

Like Drunks In A Singles Bar, Right Before Closing Time…

banks and securities firms look to “hook-up” with each other:

Morgan Stanley slumped more than 46 percent in early trading as investors fretted about its ability to quickly find a buyer or cash infusion from a foreign investor. Rival Goldman Sachs Group Inc. skidded 25 percent.

Morgan Stanley shares rallied to close up about 4 percent while Goldman Sach’s stock was lower by almost 6 percent. And Washington Mutual Inc. shares soared more than 48 percent.

The next hangover is gonna be even worse…cuz when the lights come on, we’re all gonna be ugly.

Pressing news from the world at large: We will survive

One:

If we go back to 20 percent down payments, the market will be more stable. I’m sure that in a free market we would see 20 percent down payments. Barney Frank is the only person I can think of who still wants to lend with little or no money down. He’s welcome to do it, but I dare him to use his own money instead of ours. –Arnold Kling, EconLog, via Cafe Hayek

Two, Donald Luskin at Poor and Stupid:

I’m quoted extensively in Debra Saunders’ column in today’s San Francisco Examiner.

On the campaign trail Wednesday, Obama bemoaned “the most serious financial crisis in generations.” He said the exact same words the day before…

“The most serious financial crisis in generations?”

Donald Luskin, a chief investment officer with the Menlo Park investment research firm TrendMacrolytics and an economic adviser to McCain – who tells me he has never talked to McCain – remarked that if Obama “had a little bit more experience,” he would “put these things in more context.” Luskin has lived through five or six recessions, and “this ain’t one.”

It isn’t a recession because the U.S. economy has grown in both of the last two quarters. Read: It is not receding. And while Luskin sees the unemployment rate as “a little high,” it is “not as high as it typically is in a recession.” Yes, Luskin is concerned about inflation, now at 5.4 percent. The drop in oil prices may help…

Luskin questioned what has happened to politics, when a candidate “must pretend this is a recession or you’re seen as hard-hearted.” And: “What does it say when we can’t be nuanced? And we can’t say, ‘Look, we’re in a little bit of a slowdown, but the fundamentals are strong’?”

The answer, of course, is that Democrats can’t win without trashing the economy. As Luskin pointed out in a piece in Sunday’s Washington Post, in Obama’s famed anti-Iraq war speech back in 2002, the then-Illinois state senator suggested the war was waged “to distract us from corporate scandals and a stock market that has just gone through the worst month since the Great Read more

Bloodhound Blog Radio Hosts Matthew Padilla

Have you been listening to Mortgage Mondays on Bloodhound Blog Radio?  Each Monday afternoon, at 4PM, we invite  REALTORs to listen to and participate in our 40-60 minute “radio broadcast”.

Our guest this Monday (September 22) is Matt Padilla.  Matt is a regular business and finance columnist with OC Register.  He co-authored a book about the mortgage crisis, Chain of Blame- How Wall Street Caused the Mortgage Crisis.  Needless to say, Matt’s appearance on Radio Mortgage is timely.

California REALTORs do NOT want to miss this broadcast.  Matt’s knowledge and experience is unparalleled in the media.  He’s interviewed Angelo Mozilo among other industry leaders.  We’ll spend 20-30 minutes with Matt and open the show for questions.

To participate or listen to the teleconference:

Scheduled Time:

Date: Mon, September 22, 2008
Time: 4:00 PM PDT

How to participate:

Call in:

  1. Dial: (724) 444-7444
  2. Enter: 81328 # (Call ID)
  3. Enter: 1 # or your PIN

Join from your computer:

  1. Click here to join the call or just listen along
  2. (Optional) Become a TalkShoe member

Facebook user? You can join this Call Read more

Bloodhound Blog Radio: Nehemiah Down Payment Assistance Program

Our guest on Bloodhound Blog Radio, this week, was Ronda Green, area manager with the Nehemiah Down Payment Assistance Program.

Listen to the full episode here.

We opened up the program announcing that we can be found on iTunes as “Radio Mortgage” .  All episodes will be available here, on Bloodhound Blog Radio.  We discussed the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy filing and the Bank of America/ Merrill Lynch merger.  After our brief commentary, we introduced Ronda who discussed the political battle seller-contributed, down payment assistance programs face.  Assuming a successful reintroduction , we had Ronda walk through the process of the program.  Ronda asked folks to support the program by writing their Senators at www.DPAgroundswell.org

Our stated purpose of Mortgage Mondays on Bloodhound Blog Radio is to educate REALTORs about mortgage programs and offer marketing ideas to them.  The Nehemiah Down Payment Assistance Program offers benefits to both listing and selling agents.  We suggest that REALTORS visit www.GetDownPayment.com to find free marketing pieces (and ideas) for both buyers’ agents and listing agents.

The call was attended by about 8-10 agents including William Johnson, Carole Cohen, Marlene Bridges, and Bill Collins.  Oh, the BawldGuy snuck in to announce that he has a listing in San Diego and was looking for unique ways to market it.  Successful agents, attending Mortgage Mondays on Bloodhound Blog, is proof positive that you’re never too smart to learn something.

Visit www.RadioMortgage.net for next Monday’s schedule.

Listen to the full episode here.

Programs for the Pessimist

The latest news regarding Lehman and Merrill are not surprising.  Still, expecting an impending disaster and enduring a disaster are not the same thing.  For some, a pessimistic leaning may take hold and for you… I have great news.

In a recent article in the San Diego Union Tribune by syndicated writer Lew Sichelman, we learn about a growing business in refinance lending: the cash out, no interest, no payment, no loan… loan.   That’s right.  There are investment companies out there right now loaning cash against the equity in your home.  There is no interest rate and no payments because it is not a loan.  The company simply gets to share in any equity gain you experience between the time you receive the money and when you sell the home.

There are restrictions, including a kind of pre-pay penalty.  You can not sell the home for an agreed to time period (usually at least five years).  But there is also freedom: no restrictions on how you use the money.  The investment company shares in your appreciation and your depreciation.  Of course, if your home goes up substantially, the cost of the money you received can be exorbitant.  But you get use of frozen assets right now, which can be pretty handy.

Here’s the marketing gem in all of this: There are plenty of clients and prospects on the sideline right now, desperately wishing they could get in the game.  This is one of the best buying cycles I have personally ever seen.  The problem: they are house rich and cash poor.  Here is a solution and it does not add to their monthly budget or future debt-to-income calculations.  Show them how to get that “dead” money out their home and into an income producing property.

HIGHLIGHT: If you think housing is in trouble and things are not going to get better for some time, you can take your equity out now at a cost of: nothing.  When you do eventually sell you will still have to pay back the original amount but you will have gained no equity and so the “loan” will have been Read more

If You Are A Home Builder – You Have A Problem

Cost Of Building Materials Likely To Rise Due To Hurricane Ike

Builders of new homes have been dealing with sluggish sales from lack of buyer demand, and with the potential of nearly $20 billion in damage due to Hurricane Ike – the cost of building materials could easily make a bad situation much worse.

Builders have not seen a reduction in material prices in spite of the slowing of construction over the last two years, due in part to reconstruction of the damage from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. While some material costs have gone down, most have not – and this latest giant hurricane striking a major population center is undoubtedly going to push material costs up.

In the last year, spikes in the price oil have not only driven up the cost of many materials – it has also driven up the cost of subcontract labor for which builders rely. As energy costs go up – so do the manufacturing and transportation costs associated with the materials builders need.

To make it a trifecta, the number of recently-built home foreclosures is at an all-time high – thus giving new construction some serious competition, as home buyers can find some very nice, nearly new homes for much less than most new construction.

When you bring all of these factors to bear, you can rest assured that new home builders are in for some rough waters ahead. Rising costs will raise their “break-even” point, thus making their efforts less profitable without a retail price increase – which the current market will not bear. Since profitability is already impossible for many builders – more of them are likely to fail.

“It ain’t over ’til it’s over,” Yogi Berra once said. Once again, Yogi is right.