Technorati Tags: Jobs Report, Unemployment
Month: October 2009 (page 5 of 5)
by Brian Brady
Commercial Real Estate Finance Expert
Structured Debt and Equity
Licensed Real Estate Broker in AL, CA, and FL
Wondering about the future of VA home loans and FHA mortgages? Listen to my interview with Bloodhound Blog contributor, Tony Gallegos. We discuss:
- San Diego County VA mortgage statistics (the market share number is going to astound you)
- Why VA loans have the lowest default rate among all four major loan types (including conventional prime).
- Why FHA isn’t really going broke (contrary to my earlier statement, it’s doing quite well)
- Why lenders are initiation stricter guidelines on FHA loans than HUD requires
- Why I suggest that HUD is asking FHA-approved lenders to do the “heavy lifting” for them
The interview last about 40 minutes; the perfect treadmill companion.
Okay, it’s hard to believe but tomorrow morning is the first Friday of the month again. Where has the year gone? In some ways it has flown by and in other ways it seems like it’s been about two or three years. Know what I mean?
Any way, tomorrow morning is the jobs report that shows the statistics for the month of September. I’ve had a lot of people asking me what I think it’s going to show and what I think it’s going to do to mortgage rates. I’m going to lay out what I think are the four most likely outcomes and their potential impact on mortgage rates. At the end of the piece, I’ll put my “projections” on which one is most likely to occur.
The Jobs Report Comes In Better Than Expected – Remember, it’s not so much the actual number as it is the difference between market expectations and the actual numbers. But, if the jobs report comes in better than expected, here’s what I expect will happen:
- People will feel better than they did about the prospects for a recovery in the economy.
- People and institutional investors will move money (lots of it – how much depends on how much better) from the bond market and cash and put it into the stock market.
- The stock market will have a very nice upward swing.
- The bond market and mortgage backed securities will suffer from the movement of money.
- Mortgage Rates will go up.
The Jobs Report Comes in about as expected – status quo, mediocre, we just sort of limp along. If that’s the case, I expect we’d see a “non-reaction” in the markets.
The Jobs Report Comes in Worse Than Expected – a little bit worse, but not a huge amount worse. If that’s what happens, here’s what I expect:
- People will feel worse about the prospects for recovery in the economy and we’re Read more
Okay, so all the Realtors know that short sales are like a jack-in-the-box: You crank and crank for weeks or months and nothing happens, then everything pops all at once.
Happened to me today, with the Sphinx-link bank suddenly lurching to life in order to issue two must-rush-now documents that reiterate terms my buyers have already agreed to.
That doesn’t matter. Must-rush-now! Must-have-today! Must return to hibernating state no later than 5 pm.
So Mom is at home and Dad’s at work — and both of them are 35 miles away from me.
We could trade faxes, but the originals are already barely readable.
But: No worries: We’ve got DocuSign on our side.
I set up the whole workflow: I sign, Mom signs, Dad signs — and then the whole package goes back to the lister, all untouched by human hands.
Note that I set everything up so that I could leave if I needed to, once I had signed, and the rest of the job would percolate through the ether on its own. I love this feature, since I no longer have to nurse documents.
But, as it works out, the whole job, Tinkers to Evers to Chance, was done in seven minutes flat.
I plan to write more about DocuSign when I have more time, but for now: If you don’t have DocuSign, get it. Your time is your money, and, in consequence, this is some of the best money you will ever spend.
And now the bank can roll over and go back to sleep…
P.S.: Just got confirmation that the lister has the documents. Twenty-two minutes total.